After 2 weeks of early voting 40% of registered voters have already voted. Because of the many formerly disenfranchised Democratic leaning non-voters, if Texas exceeds 11 million votes, which is 65% of registered voters, then Biden likely wins. This is particularly true in the 11 largest mostly Democratic leaning counties. Note: Biden only wins if Texans keep voting, so vote if you have not already.
My prediction is that if 50% of Texans vote early, particularly in the 11 largest counties then a 65% turnout is all but guaranteed. That would be 5 million early votes in the 11 biggest counties and 8 million early votes overall. As of Friday night, between 6.8 and 6.9 million Texas have voted and a couple key counties Collin and Williamson passed the 50% mark. Passing the 8 million early vote mark appears to be all but a certainty with a week of early voting to go.
To understand the importance of the 11 biggest counties I estimated their turnout based on their current pace and the 2016 results. Then based on Texas trending Democratic at a 1% to 1.5% per year clip, I added 2%+ to Beto’s 2018 percentage in each county rounding off. I assumed 2% third party vote. Then based on the Secretary of State’s listed number of registered voters I calculated the votes for Biden, Trump, and the difference. The result is that Biden should win those 11 counties by over 1.55 million votes. This compares to Beto winning those counties by 9.45 million votes when he ended up losing to Cruz by 214 thousand. Biden should build a big enough in this counties to win Texas overall.
County Turnout Biden% Biden Trump Net Biden
Harris 65% 60% 967039 612458 354,581
Dallas 65% 68% 617266 272323 344,943
Travis 70% 77% 458544 125058 333,486
Bexar 62% 62% 454367 263826 190,541
El Paso 55% 76% 203849 85831 118,018
Hidalgo 55% 71% 152794 58105 94,689
Fort Bend 70% 58% 195466 134804 60,662
Tarrant 65% 52% 405530 358739 46,791
Williamson 71% 83% 143293 121664 21,629
Collin 72% 49% 227687 227687 0
Denton 70% 48% 189366 197257 -7,891
I expect Cornyn will do 2% to 4% better than Trump, but If Texas has over 11 million turnout then MJ Hegar may have the advantage. This race is too close to call right now, but in 8.5 to 9 million Texans vote early then we can start seriously thinking about winning the Senate seat.
Williamson is also way ahead of Bell county so Donna Imam should have a big lead in TX-31 going into election day.