Two days ago I engaged in my most productive and worthwhile hobby, that is, arguing with commenters on Instagram. I follow Bernie Sanders, who is doing a terrific job explaining to his followers why they must vote for Biden. His posts solicit many types of responses, most of which are positive reactions. Of course there are also negative comments from Tump trolls, anti-Bernie libertarians, and a few Democratic “centrists”, who are intent on ridiculing Bernie, and telling his followers that they will never get M4A or the GND, and they should suck it up and get with the program.
But there are still some true Bernie or Busters, who claim that they will write in Bernie or not vote at all. I interacted with one of these. He was certain that Trump would win, due to Biden and not Bernie running against him. After trying to point out the ridiculousness of this idea, I finally told him to put up or shut up, and offered him a wager of $1000 on who would win, at even odds. He agreed, almost triumphantly, to take the bet. I thought this was just an exercise in internet male bravado, but I was wrong. He sent me direct messages throughout the evening, begging me to formally cement the wager. At that point I couldn’t resist. We exchanged phone numbers via direct messaging, and solidified the bet in a video chat. We even deposited small amounts in each others PayPal accounts, to verify that we were serious.
I went away feeling proud of myself for making such easy money from a fool. But the next day (yesterday) I started feeling guilty about profiting from a fellow Berner, who was suffering from a small degree of Dunning Kruger, and lack of political sophistication, but was otherwise a very nice guy — especially one who shared the same goals as I do, like M4A, the GND, an end to corporate money in politics, and all the rest.
So I called him again, telling him that I didn’t feel right about taking his money. Being a young, spirited, macho Latino, he resisted my offer, saying that was a “man of honor”. I told him that that was bullshit, and that I wouldn’t respect him less if he wanted to back out. Then I informed him about the electoral college, that Biden only had to win in WI, MI and one of PA, NC, AZ or FL, and he’d have the thing wrapped up. And that currently the real betting markets and pollsters give Trump only a 13% chance of winning. He finally accepted my offer to call off the bet, and we went on to discuss his favorite issues.
Ultimately I convinced him to vote for Biden. And so, I lost my payout of $1000 due to a guilty conscience.
But this saga gave me an idea. I can subscribe to Fox News, and offer the same bet to Trumpers there: An even bet of $1000 on Trump, no odds. I could even hedge the downside by betting Trump on the UK sportsbook sites. It would be such easy money, and it’s a shame that the enterprise would be illegal. Or is it?