Numerous Active Investigations Hindered by Executive Privilege
There are over a dozen ongoing investigations into Trump’s criminality, and possibly even into his family’s criminality. Trump’s only defense to this point has been his obstruction of justice through numerous appeals, citing Executive Privilege and non-existent Blanket Immunity.
Executive Privilege is real, and it applies only under certain circumstances to specific events that occurred during a presidency. Nothing protects a sitting President from crimes that were perpetrated before he was elected, rendering invalid Trump’s claims of “Blanket Immunity”. I’m sure Trump believed that when his protections expire, his fallback position would have been to pardon himself, or if determined to be unconstitutional, to resign and have Pence pardon him.
However, I’m sure his attorneys have explained:
Many of the investigations of Trump and his cronies
are being conducted by state or local authorities
and therefore are pardon-proof.
Trump the Scofflaw
From the time that Fred Trump sent Donald to military school at the age of 13 for illegal behavioral problems, Trump has been a scofflaw. As a young adult, Trump’s mentor was disgraced and disbarred attorney Roy Cohn. He was Trump’s “fixer” Attorney for over a decade and he taught Trump how to stay out of jail. Cohn was also a fixer attorney to the NY Mob including Carlo Gambino, Tony Salerno, Carmine Galante, and John Gotti. Trump has paid tens of millions of dollars in fines and restitution for tax fraud, stock fraud, education fraud, charity fraud, and money laundering, but he has never gone to jail. He learned well.
Trump Believes He Is Above The Law
Trump has repeatedly made claims similar to:
“[Article II] gives me all of these rights at a level that nobody has ever seen before.”
Trump’s attorneys have actually claimed in court that Trump could “shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue”, and not only would Trump not be indicted, but authorities couldn’t even investigate him at all. After exhausting all of his appeals, the Supreme Court disagreed and ruled that Trump had no “Blanket Immunity” whatsoever:
TRUMP v. VANCE, DISTRICT ATTORNEY OF THE COUNTY OF NEW YORK, ET AL.
“Two hundred years ago, a great jurist of our Court established that no citizen, not even the President, is categorically above the common duty to produce evidence when called upon in a criminal proceeding. We reaffirm that principle today and hold that the President is neither absolutely immune from state criminal subpoenas seeking his private papers nor entitled to a heightened standard of need.”
Scofflaw Trump Was Blindsided by the Scrutiny a President Receives
There have been many journalists and authors who have reported that Trump didn’t really want to be President, most notably Michael Wolff in his book Fire and Fury. They postulate that Trump wanted the fame and branding that a political campaign would bring, and he could get that massive marketing benefit for free, funded by donor contributions.
Although Trump donated $60 million to his 2016 campaign, Trump didn’t contribute a dime to his 2020 campaign. When Trump ran short of funds, he said he would contribute but he never did.
Along with winning the presidency, Trump also received the intense scrutiny that all Presidents receive from journalists all over the world. Trump used to closely control his publicity. Now he has no control over his publicity.
The Wall Street Journal and Stormy Daniels
On January 12th, 2018, the Wall Street Journal was the first to break a major story, that Trump’s fixer attorney Michael Cohen had paid Stormy Daniels hush money.
Trump’s “fixer” Accountant of 30 years Allen Weisselberg got caught up in the mix when he was reimbursing Cohen for the hush-money payments out of the Trump Organization checkbook. Facing criminal charges himself. Weisselberg was offered partial immunity to cooperate and he accepted. Weisselberg undoubtedly is involved in the other investigations, and he’ll negotiate immunity as necessary to stay out of jail.
The Washington Post and The Trump Foundation
Then on June 28th, 2018 the Washingon Post broke the story about Trump’s fraudulent foundation which was closed for “… a shocking pattern of illegality”. Former New York Attorney General Underwood described it well, paraphrasing the petition she filed:
“Our petition detailed a shocking pattern of illegality involving the Trump Foundation – including unlawful coordination with the Trump presidential campaign, repeated and willful self-dealing, and much more. This amounted to the Trump Foundation functioning as little more than a checkbook to serve Mr Trump’s business and political interests.”
Investigators Are Chomping at the Bit for a Piece of Trump
There are two people you absolutely do not want talking to investigators if you’re a scofflaw like Trump: your fixer attorney and your fixer accountant. Not only do they know where all the bodies are buried, they also helped bury some of the bodies themselves. That makes them fertile ground for immunity deals in exchange for testimony against Trump.
Michael Cohen has already helped investigators open most of the investigations in New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and District of Columbia that are still active. Also, as a result of the Trump Foundation investigation, The NY Attorney General’s office has given criminal referrals to the IRS, the NY Department of Taxation and Finance, and other law enforcement agencies. The progress of those referrals has been kept under wraps.
Cohen has told investigators everything he knows, so when his jail sentence is over, he’s finished except for possibly testifying in court. Weisselberg will have to continue trading testimony for immunity as he has much more to tell about Trump’s businesses, banking relationships, insurance relationships, and taxes.
Trump’s only defense to date has been his Executive Privilege and Blanket Immunity, and as they evaporate, all appeals will be dropped. Once the shackles have been removed from the dozens of investigators working on Trump’s cases, they’ll attack with reinvigorated enthusiasm. Trump will be getting hit from all sides in several states from several law enforcement jurisdictions.
Trump will have to massively expand his legal team, and that doesn’t even count the multiple civil lawsuits that Trump is also currently fighting. Will Trump go to jail? I doubt it. Instead, will Trump self-exile to Russia? How is Trump going to pay off the millions of dollars of debt to Putin’s Oligarch cronies? Will Trump sell US military secrets to Putin in exchange for debt relief?
Do not underestimate what a desperate, severe Narcissist like Trump is capable of doing.