Today is the 79th anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor — which is reason enough to pause and think of the Americans who died for their country that day. And while we honor the dead let us also use this Day of Infamy to give context to the devastation caused by the COVID pandemic.
On December 7th, 1941, the US was attacked by a mighty war machine that threw massive resources at an American naval base with the intention of causing as much death and destruction as they could rain down. The Americans, caught by surprise, and despite the heroics of individual sailors, soldiers, and airmen suffered catastrophic losses. By the time the Japanese Empire had done its worst, 2,403 Americans had been killed.
On December 7th, 2020, at least 2,260 Americans can expect to die from COVID. ‘At least’ because that number represents a seven-day average on a line that is headed upward. And also because of the way COVID deaths are calculated.
Reports of fatalities lag. Deaths disclosed today may have occurred days or weeks ago. And as cases mount and hospitalizations set records, the number of concomitant deaths is also rising — and it is reasonable to estimate that the current daily fatalities are already higher than the Pearl Harbor total.
And that still represents an undercount.
Analysis by the CDC analyses “excess deaths”. That is the number of deaths above what would be expected, all else being equal. Data points to perhaps 100,000 more deaths that are attributable to COVID that are in addition to the official total.
This undercount springs directly from misdiagnosis — and indirectly because of an increase of deaths due to an overwhelmed medical system. Some people aren’t getting routine checkups and are therefore missing early warnings of potentially fatal conditions. Others, who would normally be admitted for a particular condition, are turned away by rationed care in hospitals overwhelmed by COVID patients. For these people, COVID is not listed as the cause of death, despite it being a deciding factor in their demise.
Taking this into consideration, the daily COVID fatality rate may well be greater than the number of American dead recorded in the D-Day invasion — 2,501. And may well be close to 9/11, with its 2,977 fatalities. Current models predict that even if those benchmarks have not yet been reached they soon will be.
Where does the tally of total deaths fall? As I write this, on 12/7/20, the total dead from the COVID pandemic — 289,365 — lags only the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and its estimate of 500,000 to 850,000 American fatalities. Ultimately, the country stands a good chance of at least hitting the low end of that range.
HIV/AIDS has killed c.700,000 Americans since 1981, and it would take a vaccine failure for the COVID-19 death total to reach that number. But on an annual basis, COVID deaths are significantly higher — the worst year for HIV/AIDS being 1995 with 41,699.
In terms of natural disasters, nothing in the US comes close to the COVID totals. It isn’t surprising as storms, earthquakes and the like are never nationwide. The worst natural disaster to hit the US, the 1900 Galveston Hurricane killed 6,000 — 12,000. For context let’s compare that to the number of COVID deaths so far in just Texas — 23,252.
A more recent high-fatality event, Hurricane Katrina (2005), officially killed 1,245–1,836 (an oddly specific range of numbers) which also pales in comparison to the 6,607 so far killed by COVID in Louisiana.
Wars are another leading cause of 'excess’ deaths. In American history, the Civil War was the bloodiest. It resulted in c.655,000 deaths - of which c.450,000 was due to disease. And we might well hit that disease number. We will also likely reach WWII’s death total of 405,399 and we are already far beyond WWI‘s 116,516 deaths.
COVID-19 has become so fatal that it is now America’s current leading cause of death, beating out America's usual number one killer, heart disease. In the week of 12/4, the number of COVID deaths (11,600) surpassed the average number of weekly deaths from heart issues (10,000 — 11,000).
Every death is tough, but at least at Pearl Harbor Americans died in defense of their country. And the military invests a lot of time and energy in protecting the troops. While the troops themselves wear all manner of protective gear.
But for too many political leaders and disease-deniers, the idea that we should take personal responsibility to curtail the staggering number of fatalities from COVID is anathema. It raises the question, how did the socially responsible and patriotic measures of wearing a mask, socially distancing, and avoiding inside events to protect yourself and your fellow citizens become a threat to an individual's liberty? After Pearl Harbor, young Americans were drafted to fight and every American suffered through rationing for almost four years.
Why are so many Americans now incapable of doing the right thing?