A lot of Democrats are scared. Especially Democrats who were alive in 1972. Maybe that is why there is such a huge disparity between the under 45 and over 45 in the current Democratic Primary. For some reason that 1972 was so scary, so scarring and so memorable that those who lived through it panic at the thought of someone who is really far left ever getting the nomination again.
Bernie Sanders won Nevada and New Hampshire and tied in Iowa. Bernie was leading in national polls. And people who remembered McGovern freaked the fuck out and now they are all rallying to Joe Biden.
That’s the same Joe Biden who got a lower percentage of the New Hampshire primary vote than William Weld. The electable one.
If you really like Joe Biden and are inspired by him and think he’ll be a great president go ahead and vote for him. He was my initial favorite in 2008 until I realized we could have a candidate who actually opposed the Iraq War. He was a decent VP.
But for those of you who are running to Biden now because you are scared of Bernie and feel the ghost of McGovern in your bones ask yourself a question first.
When was the last time a Democratic Vice President—who did not become president FIRST—won an election for president?
The answer? Martin Van Buren in 1836.
Here are Democratic VPs who have LOST since then: Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Hubert Humphrey and John Breckenridge. Also, Adlai Stephenson was the son of a former Democratic VP and he lost twice.
On the Republican side there has been a bit more success but it has been modest. George HW Bush won but served only one term. And Nixon won two terms but only eight years after he LOST in 1960 and had to resign in disgrace due to Watergate.
The VPs who won who we remember most often became president due to the death of their predecessor. Think of LBJ, Truman and Teddy Roosevelt.
Here are a couple more lists to consider when thinking of presidential election history. Tell me which list is most likely to add Biden and which list is most likely to add Sanders or Warren.
Humphrey, Mondale, Dukakis, Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain, Romney…
Reagan, Clinton, Obama, Trump….
Let’s look at that first list. Each represents a “safer” candidate who party leaders thought was a safer choice over more “extreme” outsiders running against them. Each was experienced. Each was thought to be eminently electable. But each was also boring. None of them inspired new voters or fired up their party’s base. And each of them went down to defeat.
Now look at the other list. Ideologically they don’t share much as a group. Reagan scared the hell out of establishment Republicans in 1976 when he mounted a serious challenge to sitting VP Ford. Clinton had a ton of scandals hanging over him and was an outsider from a small Southern state who was young to boot. Barack “Hussein” Obama was a community organizer with a preacher who said “God Damn America!” and was an African American on top of it. How could he EVER get elected!? And Trump...I just can’t even. But again he was feared by his party’s establishment and was an “outsider” way to the right of his competition. And he won. Right after Obama won twice. Think about that. What did they both have in common?
Both were perceived as outsiders. Both were seen as the more left/right candidate in their party’s primary. Yes, Obama governed as a centrist. But recall 2008 and you’ll remember Fox News fearing and progressives like me hoping he was some kind of crazy socialist who was going to give us all hope and change for a new era.
So tell me, which of those groups of candidates reminds you more of Biden? Which group reminds you more of Bernie?
And then tell me again why Biden is more electable?