Exit polls in primaries and caucuses so far reveal that voters’ #1 concern is nominating the candidate with the best chance of winning in November. This indicates a nationwide awareness, a pervasive fear among Democrats that another four years of Donald Trump in the White House would spell disaster for America.
Keeping the entirely speculative “electability question” in mind, there might be something to be learned from the primary contest results to date. Biden’s wins in Virginia, South-, and North Carolina, for instance, and Bernie coming out on top in Nevada and Colorado. As any Democrat will win in deep-blue states, slam-dunks like California provide no legitimate barometer when it comes to electability. On the flip side of the coin, redder-than-red Oklahoma or Tennessee make equally invalid predictors.
However, there IS a real test on the horizon…
In the 2016 Michigan primary, Bernie Sanders eeked out a victory over Hillary Clinton, taking 67 convention delegates to Mrs. Clinton’s 63. Then, in the general election that followed, out of more than 4.5M Michigan votes cast, Hillary lost to Trump by 10,704 (less than a quarter of one percent). The 16 Electoral College votes awarded Trump from that contest, added to Clinton’s shortfalls in Wisconsin (-10), Pennsylvania (-20), and a disappointing Florida finish (-29), helped push Trump well over the 270 Electoral College threshold.
With the field now narrowed to Sanders vs. Biden, the upcoming Michigan primary looms large. If Bernie can repeat his 2016 performance, super delegates should be inclined to pay close attention. If Biden prevails, perhaps Bernie would be wise to take stock and begin preparing his devoted throng for yet another disappointment.
I know. It’s wishful thinking to expect the Democratic Party elite to step up and do the right thing. And, it’s even more Pollyanna-ish to imagine Sanders waving the white flag of surrender in order to avoid the carnage of a brokered convention. Regardless, Bernie and his nemesis, the “Party Establishment,” might take a lesson from the Ghosts of Michigan Elections Past and Present to give Democrats across the nation the Christmas miracle they are calling out for: A brighter Future where Donald Trump is the ghost.
Rand Bishop (Gimpy Ol’ Norman) is the author of the memoir TREK: My PeacePilgrimage in Search of a Kinder America. Part One of Bishop’s new serialized satirical ebook novella Option (D) DosingDonald is now available on Kindle.