So lets first state the obvious: Donald Trump is a danger to not just America, but modern civilization and general civility as we know it. When I head into the voting booth this November, I will undoubtedly cast a vote for Team Blue. However, an important question must be examined before all primary votes are cast:
Will the ideology of “vote blue no matter who” work in 2020?
Yes, we can all unite around one candidate in hopes to shape American into a different image than a snake-oil salesman, but nobody is talking about a major flaw in the logic of voting blue — the independent vote.
First, we must take look at the past before moving forward…
In 2008, the Democratic Primaries pitted Hillary Clinton against Barack Obama. While Obama, who put himself across as a progressive candidate, edged out Clinton in the end, not all of her voters were convinced. Perhaps it was the fact that moderate Democrats have dominated the presidential electorate in past years (many in losing efforts: Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, Hillary), or Obama’s message just didn’t resonate with some blue voters, but an interesting statistic pops out of the rubble:
Roughly 17-25% of Clinton voters actually cast a vote for McCain in 2008. The next time someone tries to tell you that Sanders voters cost Clinton the 2016 election, remember this statistic, as only an estimated 10% of Sanders voters cast a vote for Trump in 2016.
So how did Obama win in 2008 without even ¾ of the support from Clinton supporters? Easy. He pulled in the independent voters. In fact, according to Cornell University’s Roper Center polls, not only did 89% of self-identified liberals vote for Obama, but so did 52% of voters who identified as Independents, compared to 44% for McCain.
When you examine 2016, Hillary maintained a strong percentage of liberal voters (84%) but she lost the Independent vote to Trump, only taking in 42% of that base compared to Trump’s 46%. Unlike Obama’s high turnout in 2008 where he was able to connect with independent voters, Clinton failed to do the same. There was no spoiler candidate, as commonly alluded to by some Clinton voters.
When we look at 2020, it is only logical to look at who Independent voters are looking at.
According to a recent National GE Reuters/Ipsos poll, it is Bernie Sanders who leads all candidates among independent voters. This would make sense, as the same poll uncovered that Sanders also defeats Trump head-to-head over other candidates. This is not uncommon, as Sanders also polled well and better than Clinton among independent voters in 2016.
Edit: It is worth mentioning that Sanders is only polling 3 points higher than Biden among Independent voters. While Sanders technically would have a lead, the margin is not that great.
Is this the case to vote for Bernie Sanders if you’re in an upcoming primary state? That’s for you to decide.
However, it seems like the base is going to back the Democratic nominee no matter what. But a problem could arise if one of these two candidates aren’t going to appeal to the independent voter in November, and this is something as party we should be truly honest with ourselves over. In conclusion, the problem isn’t with uniting behind a blue candidate, the problem is forgetting that independent voters aren’t Democrats — and their vote is just as crucial.