THE PREVIOUS INSTALLMENT OF THIS SERIES CAN BE FOUND HERE: Alabama
Welcome to the second installment of this series, which I’m hoping to get out on a daily or close-to-daily timescale. I am experimenting with the title of these—for today, we’re going with “Keeping the Faith: The Democratic Longshots of 2020” since I think that’s a more accurate descriptor of both the candidates focused on here and their chances of winning (h/t to wesmorgan1 for the suggestion on that front). Feel free to toss your thoughts on this variant in the comments.
Anyways, today we’ll be going over… literally all of Arizona’s congressional districts not held by a Democrat already! The four non-Democratic seats are all pretty big lifts under the current map (or at least, the current incumbent occupying the seat), so I think it’s fair to toss them all on today’s pile. Below the cut are our multiple candidates for these districts.
(As a reminder: Arizona’s primaries take place on August 4, 2020.)
… Alabama’s 3rd congressional district
Before we get to Arizona, though, I’d just like to acknowledge one Democratic candidate I accidentally overlooked in writing the Alabama piece. In Alabama’s 3rd congressional district, we have Adia “Dr. Dia” Winfrey running, a candidate who seems very amicable! Her FEC filing brought me to her (seemingly unrelated) personal website rather than a campaign one, and it wasn’t until about an hour after the piece went up that I realized I probably should have checked to see if she had a Twitter in lieu of that—which she does. If you’d like to throw some money her way so she can get better campaign infrastructure (her district includes Auburn University), here is her ActBlue.
Now, to the actual districts in Arizona:
Arizona’s 4th congressional district
Arizona’s 4th congressional district in its current configuration has a pretty short history: it was carved out of the old 1st, 2nd, and 5th congressional districts and covers effectively all of Arizona’s non-metropolitan, heavily Republican areas. An R+21 and 88.6% white district, Democrats are usually lucky to get about 30% of the vote here—Romney and Trump both carried this district by comparable margins (67-31 and 68-28 respectively), and the worst incumbent Paul Gosar has done since he was redistricted into this district is 66.83% of the vote in 2012. Needless to say, it would probably take a pretty significant scandal for this district to be any sort of competitive.
There are two Democrats who have taken up the challenge against Gosar, nonetheless:
Delina DiSanto
Website: Delina DiSanto for Congress
Twitter: @delina4az
Delina DiSanto’s biography is an interesting one—she worked under Republican Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell for a number of years, something which she credits as “t[eaching] her the value of working on both sides of the aisle, coming up with sensible compromises and looking at legislation through the eyes of a constituent.” She also worked in healthcare, which allowed her to see the toll a lack of affordable healthcare takes on people.
DiSanto is running on a surprisingly moderate platform relative to the profile of this district. Beyond the standard Democratic positions, she supports decriminalization and legalization of marijuana, rehabilitative prisons, broader criminal justice reform (including abolishing Arizona’s legal financial obligation provision, which requires felons to pay off all their legal debts in order to vote), and a complete restoration of the VRA. Interestingly, she also supports net neutrality explicitly:
It is imperative that our country has a free, fair, and open internet for our citizens. Net neutrality is freedom; and we cannot take this freedom away from people. The Internet is an extraordinary tool for learning and it is lucrative for our growing economy.
Stu Starky
Website: Stu Starky 2020
Twitter: @StuartStarky
Those of you who specialize in Arizona politics may remember Stu Starky as the 2004 Democratic candidate against Senator John McCain, something he touts a few times on his website. After an apparent long hiatus from politics, this year, he's running in Arizona’s 4th congressional district. While his website is somewhat sparse with detail, he’s running on a mixture of moderate positions and surprisingly progressive ones. He is in favor of “a Medicare option for every American who has no insurance”, tuition free college and interest cancellation on student debt, and a whole lot of tax reform:
There is a division in this country as those at the top 1% accumulate wealth at the expense of our working families and poor. My plan calls for a major shift in how and from whom we collect taxes.
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The focus of my plan is that everyone is treated equally and the loopholes and offshore accounts era is over.
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Business taxes should be based on a VAT on revenue and not on income.
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The standard deduction should be doubled.
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5 percent of the tax revenue collected should be earmarked for debt reduction.
Arizona’s 5th congressional district
R+15 and 77% white, Arizona’s 5th congressional district is a successor of the 2003-2013 6th congressional district and covers a region of the Phoenix metropolitan area that has mostly been unchanged since 2004. Trump’s 58-37 win is not much worse than the 64-35 win that Bush’s 2004 campaign pulled off in what was then the 6th, and neither the 2003-2013 6th nor the current 5th have elected a Democrat. The closest result to date in either of these districts is, funnily enough, Joan Greene’s result in 2018, where she lost 59.4-40.6 against Andy Biggs.
Speaking of her…
Joan Greene
Website: Joan Greene for Congress
Twitter: @JoanGreeneAZ
Facebook: JoanGreeneAZ
Joan Greene is running again this year, and presumably hoping to build off of her strong result in 2018. For the unaware, Greene is an AZ-5 native with deep roots there:
Joan’s grandmother was the second woman ever elected to the Phoenix City Council, and her pediatrician grandfather established a foundation for after-school programs. Her father was a developer in Arizona who instilled in her the importance of responsibility and compassion. From a young age, her family taught her the value of public service and community-building.
Her main priorities are healthcare, veteran’s issues, and the economic security of Arizonans, and she’s straight as an arrow on them and pretty concise on how she sees things. I honestly don’t have that much to say about her!
Jon Ireland for Congress
Website: Jon Ireland for Congress
Twitter: @JonAzDistrict5
Jon Ireland is, in his own words, “...a musician, a poet, and an educator running for Congress in Arizona’s 5th district to change the fundamental problems that are rigging our economic system against us from the top down.” He is, as you can probably ascertain from that, a progressive candidate.
Although not to my knowledge endorsed by the DSA, Our Revolution, the Justice Democrats or any progressive or leftist org of the sort, Ireland’s platform is pretty orthodox: he supports Medicare for All, a vast reduction in military spending, a Green New Deal, rehousing of the homeless, and getting money out of politics. He seems to be open to at least temporary UBI, as well. More conventionally, he has a plank on massive investment in schools.
Javier Ramos
Website: Ramos 2020
The other candidate in this primary, Javier Ramos is campaigning on “Return to Civility, Return to Common Sense, Return to Unity”. His presence is scant and I suspect his campaigning is too, but a candidate he remains. His primary campaign focuses are on keeping America competitive, equality under the law, support for educational institutions, and expanding the political process to the needs of disenfranchised and disillusioned groups like the homeless.
Arizona’s 6th congressional district
At R+9 and 77% white, this district is the successor of most of the 2003-2013 3rd congressional district. Neither that district nor this one have been particularly fertile for Democrats—the old 3rd went 58-41 Bush in 2004 and 57-42 McCain in 2008, and the current 6th went 60-39 Romney in 2012—until very recently. Trump carried this district by a much-reduced 52-42 margin in 2016, and in 2018 Republican David Schweikert matched Trump, winning the district 55-45 (an admitted decrease from his 2016 margin of 62-38). However, there are signs that this could be winnable in the right circumstances: Sinema only lost this district by around 3.4% in the 2018 Senate race, and that was in a 2-point win. This race is, as a result, being targeted by the Democratic Party as a potential flip opportunity in 2020.
It’d be somewhat surprising to flip this district in a presidential year (even given the extremely good polling Democrats have been seeing out of Arizona this year), but of the four Arizona districts Democrats don’t control, this one is by far the most likely to flip of them.
Hiral Tipirneni
Website: Hiral for Congress
Twitter: @Hiral4Congress
Facebook: Hiral for Congress
I don’t think I have to explain much about Hiral Tipirneni, and it’s probably space better allocated to the other candidates, so I won’t linger. She has plenty of plans and plenty of support, and if anyone could flip this district it’d probably be Hiral given her performances in other races.
Anita Malik
Website: Anita for Arizona
Twitter: @AnitaMalik
Facebook: Anita for Arizona
Anita Malik was the 2018 candidate in this district, and in part because of her David Schweikert is now on the board of targets for 2020. Malik has a fairly strong background including numerous successful ventures in business and journalism; she’s also suffered significant hardship, as her father died of cancer in 2003 and her husband needed to undergo brain surgery for abscesses during her 2018 campaign.
Malik’s platform is largely unchanged from 2018 as far as I know. It’s more extensive than most campaigns and generally progressive. Malik supports Medicare for All and a means-tested variety of free college tuition and eliminating student debt, eliminating SuperPACs, and raising the federal minimum wage and indexing it to inflation. As far as ‘novel’ policy positions go, Malik also places emphasis on digital rights and disability rights.
Stephanie Rimmer
Website: Rimmer for Congress
Twitter: @Rimmer4Congress
Facebook: Rimmer for Congress
Stephanie Rimmer is a small business owner out of Scottsdale, and her catalyst for running was having to deal with Congress and finding it entirely unhelpful. Rimmer’s platform is interesting: she supports a “Medicare for Kids” (“so that every child in the United States has access to preventative medicine, vaccinations and early detection of medical issues for the best possible outcomes”), a requirement for all governing bodies “to implement sustainability goals and provide Congress feedback on the ability of each agency or governing body to achieve carbon neutrality”, and implementing the ACA as originally envisioned among other things.
Karl Gentles
Website: Gentles for Congress
Twitter: @KarlGentles
Facebook: Karl Gentles for Congress
Rounding out the AZ-6 candidates, Karl Gentles has a long history of civic and private service. He was alumnus of John McCain’s Senate office as well as a nonprofit executive, and he also served as an executive at USAA and the Greater Phoenix Economic Council.
While he doesn’t seem to have an issues page, this appears to be a pretty good representation of what he stands for:
- PROTECTING WORKING FAMILIES, who are one lost paycheck away from losing a home, one catastrophic illness away from bankruptcy.
- JOBS, creating new, effective pathways for people to participate fully in our economy.
- ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND DEVELOPMENT, and business success for the big guys and the little guys.
- TAKING CARE OF EACH OTHER, including veterans, seniors and our own parents and kids.
- And SAYING “NO” TO SPECIAL INTERESTS to those who try to convince us to compromise our values.
Arizona’s 8th congressional district
A 74% white, R+13 district, this district gave Romney a 62–37 win in 2012 and Trump a 58–37 win in 2016. There’s just not a whole lot to be hopeful for here, at least currently; even McSally carried this district by 12 in 2018 while losing. While Hiral Tipirneni famously made it close in the April 2018 special election, incumbent Republican Debbie Lesko’s improvement on that margin in the November 2018 general suggests she has this one locked up in its current configuration.
Nonetheless, three Democrats are trying to repeat Tipirneni’s near upset:
Michael Muscato
Website: Muscato4Congress
Twitter: @Michael_Muscato
Facebook: Muscato for Congress
Michael Muscato originally seems like a big bullet-point guy. His chops, verbatim, read as follows:
- Professional Baseball
- Broadcast Video Systems Engineer
- Video Director and Crew Chief (world music concert touring)
- Small Business Owner - Glendale, AZ
- 2016 Democratic State Senate Nominee LD22
But, on the issues, he’s generally detailed, to say the least! Muscato’s platform is fairly extensive in general, but by far the crowning jewel is the entire healthcare system proposal he’s formulated—with math and all. Muscato is generally moderate: he proposes tax credits to help students bear the costs of student loan debt, his gun violence proposal is about in line with popular opinion (universal background checks and assault weapons bans), and he wants to strengthen border security while providing a path to citizenship. He is a strong supporter of teachers and labor unions. Besides his novel healthcare system, he’s also a proponent of creating a Climate Corps.
Bob Musselwhite
Website: Bob Musselwhite for Congress
Bob Musselwhite is old, but very experienced as far as civic service goes. City council member, city manager, town administrator, and county administrator are all positions he’s held in his life; his civic service also spans three states (Arizona, North Carolina, West Virginia) and 24 years.
Musselwhite has a surprisingly extensive platform, and a fairly developed view of the democratic process and Constitution (“There are around 7,000 words and few specifics. That leaves the particulars for each generation to decide and defend. What is this generation going to do?”). His positions are generally moderate or libertarian in nature, although he could reasonably be described as progressive on war (he strongly opposes our post-9/11 interventions) and policing (he is an advocate for community policing).
Bob Olsen
Website: Bob Olsen 2020
Twitter: @BobOlsen2020
And last (but certainly not least), there’s Bob Olsen. Olsen has just as strong of a civic record as Musselwhite, although not in politics: Olsen was in the military for 32 years, served as a firefighter and as a police officer, and for a time was a lawyer representing low-income workers. Olsen is a fairly standard Democrat and, to be honest, is running on pretty much the exact platform that you’d expect a Democrat to. Insofar as someone can be a “generic Democrat”, Olson fits the billing pretty well—and perhaps that’s actually a wise move in a district like this, although whether it’ll be enough to win a contested primary is another question.
And thus, we have our field of aspiring longshot candidates in Arizona. As for who will win the primaries in each of these districts and be the longshot for each of these districts? I dunno, and I’m not about to speculate. But there’s plenty of good to go around under the surface of these seemingly-unwinnable races. And, like I said in the last one: who knows, maybe one of these folks is the next deep-red district upset, and just we don’t know it yet!
Hopefully you found this useful as was true of the last one and, like mentioned in the intro, feel free to leave a note on whether or not you like the title for this one. I’m hoping to settle on one relatively quickly so I don’t have to go back and standardize them too much.