After some absence, we're back!
The previous installment of this series, covering candidates in Arkansas, can be found here.
Today's post covers the magnificently large state of California, wherein the Democratic Party has essentially hit a ceiling of seats. With the exception of CA-25 (which is likely to return to the Democratic column in 2020) and CA-50 (with its unique circumstances), pretty much every remaining California seat would take a monumental swell to flip--or, perhaps, a bit of luck. A number of people have nonetheless answered the call and taken their chances, and they are as follows:
California’s 1st congressional district
A Trump+20, Cox+22 district with a PVI of R+11, it's pretty hard to imagine CA-01 flipping outside of a major scandal. Under its current lines, CA-01 was something like a Romney+16 district in 2012; on the previous map, neither the old CA-02 nor the old CA-04 (which constituted much of the current CA-01) were particularly competitive either. Doug LaMalfa, the incumbent Republican, probably has this seat for as long as he wants it, but his normally non-competitive races got markedly closer in 2018, when he won by just 9 points against Democrat Audrey Denney.
Audrey Denney
Website: Audrey for Congress
Twitter: @audrey4congress
Facebook: Audrey for Congress
Incidentally, Audrey Denney is running again this year! It's pretty easy to see why she was so successful in 2018, and why she might be again in 2020 despite a presidential election. She grew up around agriculture in Central California; she was a teacher for six years at CSU, Chico; she has a history with nonprofits both international and local; and she's a relatively strong fundraiser for her circumstances--she raised over a million dollars for her race against LaMalfa in 2018. Her platform is very local and rural-oriented and you can tell: some of her biggest policy planks are in forest health, wildfire mitigation, and investment in rural California. Perhaps her most interesting policy though is support for the PILT and SRS programs. I'll let her explain:
The PILT program was created in 1976 and SRS in 2000 to provide payments to local governments and counties to offset losses in revenue caused by public lands. PILT and SRS funding invest in roads and bridges, medical services, law enforcement, search and rescue, education, forest management, and fire prevention. Even with PILT and SRS funding, which is limited, counties struggle to raise enough revenue to support the services they provide.
The Secure Rural Schools (SRS) program was created to provide financial support to school districts and rural counties who have experienced a steep decline in historic rates of revenue from forest management activities on federal lands.
The 11 counties of District 1, have nearly 10 million acres in federal land (almost a quarter of California’s federal land) and receive just over $15 million from PILT (an average of just $1.50 per acre).
SRS and PILT funding must be reauthorized yearly and due to arguments in Congress, delays in funding happen often. Lapses in payments in 2014 and 2016 devastated counties and their ability to support critical services. SRS and PILT must be reauthorized this year for this essential funding to continue.
California's 4th congressional district
CA-04 is a Trump+15, Cox+19 district with a PVI of R+10, and is fairly close to the upper bound of seats you could realistically flip without external influences. Since being narrowly elected in 2008, incumbent Republican Tom McClintock has not been seriously contested--with the exception of 2018, when he carried this ordinarily uncompetitive seat by around 9 points. Like LaMalfa, McClintock is very likely to hang on to his seat, but don't count out the possibility of another pretty close race here due to the Democratic candidate:
Brynne Kennedy
Website: Brynne for Congress
Twitter: @BrynneSpeak
Facebook: Brynne for Congress
Brynne Kennedy is an interesting candidate: born in a rural community, raised a prospective Olympian before having her aspirations cut short by injury, then turned a successful businesswoman who founded a major software company. Beyond her unusual trajectory in life, she's also a fairly remarkable fundraiser: through March of 2020, Kennedy has raised over a million dollars for her campaign and kept pace with McClintock's fundraising. As a politician, Kennedy is about what you'd expect for the district--relatively moderate and rurally-focused. She is a supporter of the ACA and wants stronger border security and labor laws that meet worker needs "without inviting more unlawful immigration or shortchanging American workers".
California's 8th congressional district
CA-08 is a Trump+15, Cox+20 district with a PVI of R+9, and there is really nowhere to go but up for Democrats here. Since redistricting in 2012, this district has been contested by Democrats only two times out of four due to the top-two advance system--in 2012 and 2018 both candidates were Republicans, with incumbent Paul Cook winning easily. Cook is vacating this seat, but he has never been seriously challenged and due to the 2018 lockout it's tough to tell if a Democrat can even come close here. Nonetheless, this year a Democrat is in a position to do so, and they'll have the chance to prevent Republican Jay Obernolte from being seated in Congress.
Christine "Chris" Bubser
Website: Chris Bubser for Congress
Twitter: @Bubser4Congress
Facebook: Bubser for Congress
Just to be clear out of the gate, Chris Bubser is a woman whose nickname is Chris. She's a biotech advisor and engineer who has never run for office, but she seems fairly well acquainted with the 8th congressional district given her residence in the area for over two decades. While she doesn't quite have the level of fundraising Brynne Kennedy does, Bubser has managed to draw a respectable $700,000 to her campaign thus far (which is not far off from Obernolte's $1.3 million). As far as policy goes, Bubser is a pretty generic Democrat: pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-renewable energy, and pro-immigration. If I had to guess, this seems like it would work to her advantage in this district.
California's 22nd congressional district
CA-22 is actually not that Republican, all things considered. It has a PVI of R+8, and Trump carried this district by 10 points in 2016 while Cox did so by 13 in 2018. More problematic in flipping this seat is the current occupant, the (in)famous Devin Nunes. Nunes has had but a single competitive race--his 2018 race, where he won the seat by just 6 points--and it seems unlikely that the 2020 race will be more competitive than the 2018 race here given Nunes's positively massive cash on hand and fundraising advantages. Still, he faces a relatively well known competitor:
Phil Arballo
Website: Phil Arballo for Congress
Twitter: @PhilArballo2020
Facebook: Phil Arballo 2020
Purely as a result of who he's running against, Phil Arballo is probably among the best-known longshots this series will profile. With over 180,000 Twitter followers, he's certainly not lacking in digital reach! As a political candidate, Arballo is actually a relatively good choice: he grew up in Fresno and is pretty well known in the local community due to his activism. He's also (like Chris Bubser) quite moderate and pretty close to what you might consider a "generic Democrat" rather than a personality unto himself, and that will no doubt help him in attempting to topple someone like Devin Nunes in this right-leaning district.
California's 23nd congressional district
CA-23 on the other hand is very much so Republican, going to Trump by 20 points and Cox by 25. Just its PVI of R+14 unto itself would make the district a near impossible climb for any Democrat outside of scandal; it being the seat of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy just adds to the difficulty. In 2018, McCarthy faced his closest race since entering Congress--he won this race by 29 points. Insofar as California has an unwinnable district, this is probably it for Democrats.
Kim Mangone
Website: Kim Mangone for Congress
Twitter: @kimmangone
Facebook: Mangone for Congress
Kim Mangone is the sacrificial lamb, and she's also fairly well known in the way that Phil Arballo is--that is to say, known because of who they're running against rather than because they're a truly viable candidate. Still, Mangone isn't a bad candidate by any stretch of the word. Actually, in another district she'd probably make a pretty good recruit: she's a veteran of the Air Force and spent much of her career in a profession that demanded innovation and solutions. She, like a number of the other Democrats on here, is also pretty generic for a Democratic candidate. Her policy positions are largely identical to the national party's positions, with the exception of rural investment and jobs, where she commits to fighting for additional resources.
California's 42nd congressional district
An R+9, Trump+12, Cox+18 district, CA-42 also falls on the cusp of theoretically-winnable-without-scandal. Nonetheless, incumbent Republican Ken Calvert has yet to see a particularly meaningful challenge here--his closest race in the current district (2018) still saw him carry this district by 13 points. Calvert is unlikely to be seriously challenged this year either, but he will be facing an interesting--if underfunded--challenger this year in Liam O'Mara.
Liam O'Mara
Website: Liam O'Mara for Congress
Twitter: @LiamOMaraIV
Facebook: Liam O'Mara IV
Liam O'Mara is definitely one of the most interesting people running on the Democratic side in California this year. O'Mara is an open progressive in the Sanders vein, running on implementing a single-payer, Medicare-for-all system, the Green New Deal, major criminal justice and drug decriminalization reforms, and comprehensive immigration reform. However, his policy positions are not confined only to Sanders-style progressivism: he also supports UBI, is completely opposed to "restrictions on an individual’s lifestyle, body choices, chemical intake, personal possessions, or what have you", and is personally opposed to but nonetheless supportive of abortion rights. O'Mara also holds a handful of unique positions--disability rights, a non-interventionist foreign policy, and even support for revenue-neutral government spending of all things! (Also his media neutrality policy is… something?) O'Mara is exceedingly unlikely to win, but if he somehow pulled an upset off he would certainly be one of the most interesting congresspeople in the House.
California's 50th congressional district
And finally, CA-50, an R+11, Trump+15, Cox+18 district, is our last district of the day. Duncan Hunter's fall from grace left this district exceedingly competitive in 2018, when Ammar Campa-Najjar fell just short of winning the district, but it seems unlikely that this will repeat itself in 2020. Darrell Issa, the former representative of CA-49, presents a "credible" Republican for this seat and Trump seems unlikely to do meaningfully worse here in the presidential election. Hence, here we are.
Ammar Campa-Najjar
Website: Ammar Campa-Najjar for Congress
Twitter: @ACampaNajjar
Facebook: Campa-Najjar for Congress
Ammar Campa-Najjar probably does not need an introduction given his star-power in this district in 2018. He is one of the best people who could realistically be put up in a district like this, and in most others he'd be a certain winner in a general election; nonetheless, the climb here is pretty steep and his inability to carry the district in 2018 makes it extremely likely he won't be able to in 2020 against a less scandal-tarred opponent and in a worse environment than 2018. Still, of all the candidates on here Campa-Najjar represents perhaps the most likely winner: if anybody on this list can pull off a miraculous and impressive upset, I'd definitely bet on him to be the one.
This concludes California's long shot round-up. Hopefully you've gotten something out of this, or perhaps a candidate to direct people toward. In the future I am going to actually attempt to get these out on a more reasonable timetable.