In wave elections, it seems that seats are more or less given away. We may be seeing a case of this in KS-02, in the eastern part of the state—Topeka, Lawrence, Pittsburg, and some outer Kansas City burbs. On paper, it’s one of only two districts in Kansas where a Democrat has a realistic chance of winning.
Last year’s race was a barnburner, with Republican Steve Watkins nosing out Democrat Paul Davis by 0.8 percentage points. Despite the close race, Watkins was initially heavily favored for a second term, with Cook Political Report listing his race as “Likely Republican.”
But that may have changed in a big way tonight. Just minutes before he was due to take part in a Republican primary debate against state treasurer Jake LaTurner, Watkins was arraigned on charges of voter fraud.
Back in December, the Shawnee County (Topeka) Sheriff got a tip that Watkins used a UPS store as his address when he voted in the 2019 off-year elections. Local DA Mike Kagay took over the investigation in April.
After delays caused by COVID, Kagay announced that Watkins had been charged with lying to law enforcement, voting without being qualified, unlawful advance voting, and failing to notify the DMV that he’d changed his address.
For a congressman in a seat rated as “Likely Republican,” Watkins has faced a lot of turmoil. He’d faced accusations that he’d inflated his resume and missed several votes. He’d also faced accusations of sexual misconduct. The FEC was also looking into improper donations that his father, Steve Sr., made to his son’s congressional campaign.
It’s hard to imagine Watkins surviving this. Fortunately, it looks like there’s a credible Democrat running here—Topeka mayor Michelle de la Isla, who could be the first Latina to represent Kansas in Congress. Incidentally, if she wins, Kansas would have two women of color in the House; Sharice Davids, remember, is Native American. Send her some love here.