We have the votes to kick trump in the rump. worries me is whether COVID-19, the sabotage of the post office, and voter suppression efforts will keep people from casting ballots.
On the other hand, I'm optimistic for several reasons that Joe Biden will win in November.
- Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. The GOP hasn't spent decades demonizing him: people are less likely to vote AGAINST him, as they did with Clinton. So far, the worst the Republicans can come up with is "Sleepy Joe" and that Beau Biden once met a minor European official. And outrageous lies, of course.
- Kamala Harris is not Hillary Clinton. The vilification has to start from scratch. The Republicans have less than three months to generate fear and loathing for Harris. The worst they have so far is Birtherism 2.0. And, of course, other outright lies.
- Biden's polling numbers are better than Clinton's were in 2016. Rachel Maddow talked about this Monday night. She pointed out that Clinton's average lead was about four points and never neared double digits. Biden's average lead has been consistently near double digits.
- Third party candidates aren't visible, as they were in 2016. This year their supporters are more likely to vote for Biden or to vote against trump.
- The economy sucks. That's usually an indicator that the incumbent is on the way out.
- trump is "cutting off his nose to spite his face" with his efforts to gaslight people about voting by mail, and his interference with the Post Office. Both may backfire on him because his rural and elderly base depend on the mail.