Baker, who has always portrayed himself as a moderate, has enjoyed relatively strong ratings from Democrats during his tenure. More importantly, though, Baker is very popular with registered independents, who are more than half of the state’s voters and always make up a huge share of the Democratic primary vote. (Massachusetts allows voters who aren’t registered with a party to pick which primary they’ll participate in.) Notably, RABA finds that only 54% of its 1st District primary sample are registered Democrats, while the balance are independents.
RABA did not ask about Baker in its poll, but there’s good reason to think that he’ll be very well liked with the people who show up on Tuesday. Suffolk University’s recent poll found the governor with a mighty 81-10 favorable rating with statewide Democratic primary voters, and his numbers in this western Massachusetts seat likely wouldn’t be dramatically different. Indeed, back in 2018, Baker carried this district by the same 67-33 margin that he earned statewide.
But Morse, who is campaigning as a progressive alternative to Neal, is hoping that Baker’s endorsement will turn voters off from the incumbent. Morse responded to the news saying, “I’m not surprised to see Governor Baker’s tweet, because those who are satisfied with the status quo are supporting Richie Neal.”