Eighty major countries now have Covid-19 suppressed or controlled, though few if any have eliminated it. We know this from infections and deaths worldwide for the month of July, just ended.
Of these eighty, 27 countries recorded no July deaths at all, eight recorded just the one death, nine recorded two and the other 36 three or more. All kept deaths per million population below 3.0 – which is our definition of “success”. (Data is from Worldometers, here.)
Virus controlled or suppressed
Five major developed countries (populations above 300,000 and classified as highly-developed by the UNDP) had zero deaths in July. They were New Zealand, Iceland, Estonia, Taiwan and Cyprus. Two of these, New Zealand and Taiwan, can almost claim elimination – with just 20 and 19 active cases respectively. The other three have active infections above 48 per million inhabitants, so have the virus controlled but not yet eliminated.
Advanced countries with fewer than one death per million in July were Japan, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Finland, Slovakia and Lithuania.
The Americas
Just three countries in the Americas account for more than half the world’s active cases at the end of July. These are the United States (2,221,570), Brazil (689,679) and Bolivia (49,035). This is despite having just seven per cent of the world’s population.
Altogether, the 29 countries in North, Central and South America – with just thirteen per cent of the world’s population – accounted for 64 per cent of all July deaths.
The six largest American countries by population experienced these deaths in July:
Canada: 344 (9.1 per million)
Argentina: 2,236 (49.4 per million)
United States: 26,697 (80.6 per million)
Colombia: 6,771 (133.0 per million)
Mexico: 18,879 (146.3 per million)
Brazil: 32,912 (154.7 per million)
Europe
Given that about a dozen countries within an easy drive of Lombardy, Italy, were devastated by the pandemic in February and March, Europe has recovered remarkably well.
Cyprus, Estonia, Iceland and Malta recorded no deaths in July. Finland and Slovakia had just the one, and Georgia, Lithuania and Latvia two. Altogether, 18 European states recorded fewer than three deaths per million.
One notable success is Spain whose fatalities have plummeted. From 8,464 deaths in March and a disastrous 16,079 in April, deaths eased to 3,487 in May, fell to 325 in June and tumbled further to 90 in July. Control is possible. Felicidades España!
Africa
Of the eighty nations which have kept deaths low, the largest group – 31 countries – is in Africa. Caution is required as many of these have poor health facilities and limited capacity to record outcomes accurately. So infection and death rates may be higher than official statistics reveal. Nevertheless, grave fears at the outset that there would be countless millions of deaths across Africa have not been realised.
Government actions matter
It is possible to determine what the successful governments did to control the pandemic which others didn’t do. As discussed here and elsewhere, the six decisive actions were: timely travel bans, compulsory quarantining, widespread early testing, contact tracing, disseminating truthful information and global collaboration.
Tragically for many Americans, the Trump administration failed in all these areas.
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This data was first published here in Independent Australia on Monday 3rd August 2020.