Some encouraging news from the trenches everyone, much more so than our last diary. We’re based in Florida, likewise active in Arizona and North Carolina but also reaching out to the “new Swing States” of Texas, South Carolina and Georgia, and in decades of campaigning for Dems—even, amazingly, in this sharply polarized political realm—we’ve never before had a message as effective as we do now in bringing even many older conservative voters to our side. It’ s more important than ever to remain focused, and constantly repeat and drum in this simple message: Republicans want to use the Supreme Court to bankrupt you from pre-existing conditions (even as COVID is raging). Don’t let them do this to you and your family! Like we were saying earlier, amid all the sturm und drang of 100+ political issues that the media will cover, there are only 4 or 5 or so that actually motivate people to vote in a certain way (and to vote in general)—the sorts of things that directly, personally affect them and their families, and especially that inspire fear, the classic “hierarchy of important needs” principle. And right now, Americans—including very conservative Boomers, as we’ve been finding—are very, very worried about losing protections for pre-existing conditions. Therefore pitches that subtly, but effectively link to Trump and the GOP’s case against the ACA in November (though we don’t mention the ACA specifically much—more on this later), and the judges’ plans for judicial appointments, with loss of pre-existing conditions protections, have been remarkably effective, much more so than any we’ve tried before. Anything that might even hint at removing these protections is wildly unpopular with voters, including the wealthy “FIRE” retirees who once proved to be the GOP’s most reliable voting bloc in states like Florida, Arizona and Texas.
--— Deliver the message clearly and succinctly while being prepared for questions, and keep the focus exclusively on the danger to pre-existing conditions protected from the Republican court cases, without mentioning the ACA or Obamacare in the pitch. Yes, we know—tons and tons of cognitive dissonance here, the ACA makes those protections possible, baffling that so many conservative-leaning Americans fail to associate their support for pre-existing condition protections (which is wildly popular across the political spectrum) with the ACA. It doesn’t matter, all that matters is that we win their votes in November. If you’re canvassing and doing GOTV, you must adopt this ruthless, “whatever it takes” attitude to win voters in the Battlegrounds this year for Biden/Harris and the full Democratic ticket (esp. in the Senate races), all the easier for us because this fact is true. For anyone who might feel more comfortable understanding the psychology—it’s been shown that, even for many highly educated critical thinkers, you don’t persuade someone much by proving them wrong, there’s some sort of internal resistance to this and people dig in even harder to wrong ideas. Rather you have to use a subtle, somewhat circuitous approach—without actually challenging (let alone criticizing) them for their opposition to the ACA, you simply focus on the thing they are truly afraid of (losing preexisting condition protections and going broke) until they gradually come around to the rest of it. Obviously if voters ask about the ACA then it’s fine to (gently, courteously) explain how the ACA’s policies do indeed provide those protections, but even then, the key is to return right away to a focus squarely on the pre-existing conditions, and how the GOP has truly, terribly and tangibly become the actual enemy of the people at large right now by threatening them with financial ruin—even as the COVID-19 pandemic is still continuing to rage!
--— Personalize the message wherever possible as you talk to people. Keep in mind that virtually everyone has some sort of pre-existing condition or another—either the person or his or her family member—and that health insurance companies absolutely would also use a bout with COVID-19 as a pre-existing condition, given its long-term effects. Again whether we like it or not, the reality is that fear is the most powerful motivator in people’s voting conditions, and oftentimes, you really have to scary the heck out of people to get them to vote your way. In this case we can feel fully justified ethically because the Republicans really do want to take away people’s pre-existing conditions protections.
---— Keep the focus squarely on this message. We’re not saying the other things are unimportant, and obviously the threat against Roe v. Wade is a powerful motivator for suburban women to support the Democratic ticket this year, as is the threat to the Dreamers against Latinos and their families. But when so many people are so busy and don’t have much time to spend on politics, winning their votes and achieving victory is often above all, a matter of distilling things down to one or two simple messages that stick with people, and hammering them in. And remember in general to focus on the small fraction of issues that directly affect voters’ and their families’ lives and livelihoods.
---— If this does come up (and it may, given the Trumpsters’ use of social media), like we wrote in the previous diary, the one problem for the Biden-Harris campaign here has been the H-1B visa and their perceived support of it (though this is far from clear). Even more conservative (including older Cuban-American) communities are largely supportive of backing for the Dreamers, more humane border conditions, family reunification, the Diversity Lottery visa even bringing in more refugees—all of which are in line with the USA’s progressive tradition of allowing in the tired and poor to find a better future in America—but the H-1B is wildly unpopular even with Democrats because it’s not a progressive immigration policy, and is largely used by big corporations (like Disney and Microsoft) as cheap labor brought in as a form of indentured servitude. This perception has been magnified by the 2015 NYT article harshly criticizing Disney in Florida for using the H-1B to lay off American tech workers and replace them with workers from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh making half the salary, and in tech-heavy states like Florida and Texas, this damages any Democrat who supports it. Don’t bring it up at all, but if you’re asked (and the Trumpsters are doing this a lot on social media, including the Spanish-language channels), make it clear that Biden and Harris support American workers getting jobs first esp. in this COVID-19 economic crisis, that they won’t allow the H-1B to displace Americans, and that the H-1B will be fully renewed only with tight worker protections and in full employment. Again don’t bring it up unless asked but given the Trumpsters’ messages, you may hear it and again if so, be prepared and make it clear that the Biden-Harris campaign also carries an economic populist message and will tend to Americans first in this time of crisis (and, as Biden has said, Trump the Park Avenue magnate is not a true populist). And as always try to bring the focus back to pre-existing conditions.
---— If people need still more convincing (and in our experience, most—even Boomer, Silent Generation and WWII Generation voters—generally don’t)—be prepared to make clear just precisely what a loss of pre-existing conditions would entail, and how horrible this would be for people, esp. older Americans who would be hit the hardest. Remember that seniors on Medicare are still vulnerable to this. Medicare in general covers only about 80% of their medical expenses, and since seniors generally have more preexisting conditions than younger voters, their medical bills would skyrocket if the pre-existing condition protections were repealed. Also make it clear that Trump’s talk of an executive order to provide pre-existing conditions protection is meaningless--a major court ruling to strike down the protections would override his executive order, and he knows it. If Trump and the GOP really did want to ensure these protections, then they’d withdraw the suit going to SCOTUS in November (not to mention choosing a moderate justice). So obviously, they’re going ahead with the push to repeal those protections. Communicate this to voters, and make the GOP pay dearly for it. We’re getting a lot of funding to help our GOTV and make the Blue Wave happen (even more so if the billionaires like Bloomberg, Soros and Buffett help to match the small donations) but ultimately, success comes from the volunteers and staffers pounding the pavement.
---— And finally a bit of especially rousing news. For the first time we’ve ever seen, Texas really is winnable for us this year! I’ll confess that I didn’t quite believe it in 2016 despite the polls and in some of the 2020 polls (or even in 2018 until Beto gave Cruz such a shock), largely because our ground game findings didn’t back this up. But this year, we’re seeing movement like we’ve never seen before, on top of a massive and sustained increase in voter registration by Dem likely voters. I still think it’d be a stretch, but for once, even our results from the ground show it really is doable this year, and focusing on the pre-existing conditions message, with discipline and fury, is key to success in this.