The Republican’s biggest lie is that they are the party of business, prosperity and fiscal rectitude. There is no evidence to support this proposition. Time and again, analyses show that employment, GDP, and stock markets do better under Democratic rather than Republican administrations. The last time a Republican President handed over an improving economy to a newly inaugurated Democrat was Gerald Ford to Jimmy Carter in 1977. Ever since, the first year of a Democratic administration has been spent cleaning up an economic mess.
And if Joe Biden wins, he will follow his predecessors’ path.
Moody’s Analytics has examined the plans proposed by Biden and Trump and resoundingly concluded Biden has the plan that best benefits everyone, including both labor and big business. By all metrics Moody’s considers, the Democrats come out on top. So let’s look at the numbers.
Moody’s breaks down the future into four possible scenarios ranked most to least likely.
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Democrats gain the presidency with a Republican Senate and Democratic House. (40% probability)
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Status quo: Trump, a Republican Senate and Democratic House (35%)
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Democratic sweep: Biden, a Democratic Senate and House (20%)
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Republican sweep: Trump, a Republican Senate and House (5%)
Moody’s then projects GDP based on the four scenarios.
By far the best result is with a Democratic sweep. But even if the Senate stays Republican the country is better off with a Biden administration and a Republican Senate (baseline scenario) than it would be with a Trump administration and Republican Senate (current policy). Worst of all would be a Republican sweep.
Next Moody’s looks at unemployment.
It is almost an exact copy of the GDP projection. Again the best result comes with a Democratic sweep. The worst is engendered with the Republicans controlling everything.
Other projections follow a similar trajectory.
The chart below shows Moody’s predictions on eight measures of the economy. The results are determined for each of the four scenarios. And they are predicted from 2021-2024 and from 2021-2030.
In each case I have highlighted the best result for each category in both of the two time ranges.
A Democratic sweep is by far the most favorable outcome for the economy, both in the shorter and longer terms. In the only category where it doesn’t produce the best result from 2021-2024 (the federal budget deficit) it lags only a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate.
Moody’s economic predictions in 8 categories and 2 time frames.
2021-2024
In the longer term, 2021-2030, a Democratic sweep is best in 6 of 8 measures. And where it lags (S&P, deficit) the best result is still produced by a Biden presidency.
2021-2030
It is no surprise that all the Republicans offer are guns, bibles and racism. Because that is all they have.