NPR’s Ari Shapiro spoke with Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant in Washington, D.C., about the state of the GOP now that former President Donald Trump is no longer in office. It’s at All Things Considered.
SHAPIRO: Donald Trump is no longer in the White House. He's not even on Twitter. So why are so many Republicans across the country remaining deeply loyal even now?
AYRES: Ari, January 6 was the opening battle in the war for the soul of the Republican Party. The GOP is seriously split into a governing faction and a populist faction. The governing faction dominated the party for years and still dominates today among elected officials. The populist faction was present before Donald Trump's candidacy, but Trump expanded it and grew it into a dominant force in Republican primaries, although it never became a majority force in the country. Almost all the condemnation from the GOP about the events of January 6 has come from the governing wing of the party. Very little has come from the populist wing.
While Ayres describes the two factions as “governing” and “populist”, a more accurate description IMHO was in a recent NY Times essay that described them as “gamers” versus “breakers”.
While Ayres tries to frame the split a particular way, Shapiro begs to differ:
SHAPIRO: You know, you're describing it as the governing wing and the populist wing, but you could also accurately describe it as the reality-based wing and the wing that believes in hoaxes and conspiracies that is willing to deny reality.
AYRES: The populist faction is mainly the Tea Party movement of 2010 with a famous and inflammatory leader. It's the 21st century version of populism - anti-elite, anti-intellectual, anti-establishment, anti-media, anti-immigrant, anti-Wall Street. The populist faction is not going away, even if Donald Trump does.
emphasis added
If you can find a positive approach to governing GOP populist-style in there, good luck.
It’s really worth listening to the audio at the link, if only to hear the incredulity in Shapiro’s voice as Ayres spouts calculated nonsense. This is the kicker:
SHAPIRO: Fair point. But I was actually thinking about it in a slightly different context, which is if the Republican Party does coalesce around this message that says free and fair elections can be overturned if you don't like the outcome, is that a threat to American democracy?
AYRES: The Republican Party is not going to coalesce around that message, Ari. There are too many folks who have too much respect for democracy and too much respect for our government to coalesce around that sort of message.
SHAPIRO: I appreciate your confidence. What makes you so sure?
AYRES: (Laughter) Because the governing faction dominates the party among elected officials. It always has. It did throughout the Trump years. And those elected officials are not going to somehow forsake their fundamental oath to the Constitution of the United States.
emphasis added
The superpower of the Republican Party is shamelessness — but denial is right up there too.
For some background on who Whit Ayres is, here’s the website for his company, North Star Opinion Research. This particular section is illuminating as to where he’s coming from — and who depends on his services.
As Founder and President of North Star Opinion Research, a national public opinion and public affairs research firm located in Alexandria, Virginia, Whit provides message development advice and strategic insights to high level political clients including U.S. Senators Marco Rubio, Lamar Alexander, Lindsey Graham, Jim Inhofe, and John Kennedy, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, current and former Tennessee Governors Bill Lee and Bill Haslam, and former Senator Bob Corker. Association clients include the Boy Scouts of America, the Federalist Society, and the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association.
Again, listen to the audio of the interview at NPR if you can. It’s about 5 minutes long. The transcript does not adequately convey the assurance with which Ayres describes the current state of the GOP, and his seeming lack of concern about it. Whatever else happens, it appears he expects those consulting fees to keep rolling in.
For some reason I am reminded of the old cliché about who will be first up against the wall when the revolution comes...