Here’s the latest news today out of Virginia courtesy of Roanoke College’s latest poll:
Just a few days before Election Day, the race for Virginia governor is a statistical tie. Former Democrat Gov. Terry McAuliffe holds a 1-percentage point lead over Republican Glenn Youngkin (47%-46%) with 6% undecided, according to The Roanoke College Poll.[1] The downticket races are also within the margin of error, with Del. Hala Ayala (D) ahead of former Del. Winsome Sears (R) 46%-44% for lieutenant governor and Attorney General Mark Herring (D) leading Del. Jason Miyares (R) 46%-45% in the race for attorney general. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 571 likely Virginia voters between October 14 and October 28 and has a margin of error of +4.1%.
Republicans hold an advantage in being extremely enthusiastic about voting (49% to 32% for Democrats), while most partisans say they are almost certain to vote or have already voted (76% of Republicans vs. 77% of Democrats). Likely voters see the economy (38%) and education (22%) as the most important issues in the election ahead of COVID (13%), health care (11%), and race relations (7%). Most voters (73%) decided who to vote for more than a month ago, but 19% decided in the last month or the last week.
McAuliffe’s favorable rating is 44%, while his unfavorable is 43%. Youngkin is at 45%/37% favorable/unfavorable. Former President Donald Trump’s rating is 37%/54% favorable/unfavorable. Half of those polled (50%) disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 44% approve.
When asked who should have control over the curriculum in public schools, teachers (43% great deal of control and 44% some control) and parents (41% great deal of control and 41% some control) scored the highest. School boards (27% great deal/54% some) and administrators (29% great deal/51% some) rated higher than local, state or federal governments.
[1] With “leaners” included, the totals move to McAuliffe 48%, Youngkin 47%, Blanding 1%, Undecided 4%.
Today is the last day of voting and here are some updates on early voting.
Exactly 1,031,668 votes have been casted.
Now here’s some great analysis and perspective:
As we all know, it’s all about turning out the base:
In a vital election for Democrats this fall, veteran party stalwart Terry McAuliffe is unexpectedly being run to the wire by his Republican rival, a political newcomer, in the governor’s race in Virginia.
One path to victory for McAuliffe is turning out enough Black voters – and he and the party leadership are keenly aware of it – but can they make it happen?
Prominent Black politicians have rushed in to campaign for him.
Last week, it was Kamala Harris (twice) and Barack Obama, while the Atlanta mayor, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Democratic National Committee chairman, Jaime Harrison, and Georgia senator Raphael Warnock have been there previously.
By 2 November, the gubernatorial election day, McAuliffe will have stood on stage three times with Georgia’s Stacey Abrams – the top architect of turnout strategy for minority voters.
Abrams’s plan is direct: bring enough Black voters to the polls and they will support Democrats to victory over 90% of the time.
The big names have been pushing hard to get the base out:
TheGrio accompanied Vice President Kamala Harris on Air Force Two as she urged Virginians to turn out the vote for the key governor’s race
Vice President Kamala Harris traveled down to Virginia on Friday to drum up support for former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe, who is seeking reelection after four years out of office. TheGrio accompanied the vice president on Air Force Two for her participation in the rally.
McAuliffe’s bid for the governor’s mansion in Virginia is seen by many as a litmus test for the future of the Democratic Party under President Joe Biden’s leadership. Although Virginia has been solidly blue since the election of Barack Obama as president, ahead of this upcoming Tuesday’s election, it is trending as too close to call as McAuliffe is neck and neck with his Republican challenger, Glenn Youngkin.
“Tuesday is a critical day that will determine whether we turn back the clock or move it forward,” Vice President Harris highlighted during her energetic remarks at the campaign event at the Peter G. Decker Half Moone Center in Norfolk, Virginia. “Virginia will determine what happens in 2022, 2024 and so on.”
The crowd of about 900 people cheered on the vice president during some of her most standout moments of the rally. “Don’t let Virginia be an experiment,” the vice president said as she highlighted that the nation is watching Virginia in the same vein it watched critical races in Texas. She added, “Who’s governor matters.”
Pharrell Williams, a native of Virginia and Grammy-winning musician, introduced the vice president to the stage and stumped for McAuliffe. The music superstar’s presence highlights the emphasis that the Democratic Party has placed on Black voters in Virginia. This is a trend that has prevailed in races of the past and present, both statewide and nationally.
Among campaign issues, education has been a focal point of public discussion across the country due to the debate pushed by conservatives on whether race and history should be censored or retold in indiscriminate detail in classrooms. In Virginia, critical race theory has spilled over into the campaign and become a hot button issue.
U.S. Congressman Bobby Scott, who represents Virginia’s 3rd congressional district, highlighted the issue’s impact on the campaign trail by reminding voters that Youngkin took aim at schools using acclaimed Black author Toni Morrison’s Pulitzer Prize-winning Beloved in school curriculums.
“Glenn Youngkin wants to create division by using dog whistles at every turn,” Scott said onstage at the McAuliffe rally.
And one more big name is in Virginia this weekend:
Rep. Jim Clyburn rescued Joe Biden's presidential campaign last year, turning out Black voters at a pivotal moment. Now, Democrats are hoping the sage from South Carolina can help pull Terry McAuliffe over the finish line in Virginia.
Why it matters: Calling in Clyburn as a closer ahead of Tuesday's gubernatorial election reflects his enduring status in the party — and Democrats real worries about turnout despite Biden's 10-point win last November over former President Trump.
- Hopes that a national $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill championed by Biden could boost McAuliffe were dashed this week when Democratic infighting over a separate $1.75 trillion social spending package delayed final passage.
- Biden's sinking popularity and some suburban voters' frustrations over school masking and curriculum also have amped GOP enthusiasm.
Driving the news: Clyburn will participate in GOTV events Saturday and Sunday to make his case for electing McAuliffe, a former governor and national party chairman and fundraiser, over Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin. Clyburn's planned stops include several churches.
And that is going to be key:
In an interview, Amy Wentz, a member of a civil rights group, the Richmond Crusade for Voters, suggested another potential reason that some Black voters, especially women, may be in a funk: The party nominated a 64-year-old white man for governor after he defeated two Black female legislators in the primary.
Ms. Wentz, who said she was a strong McAuliffe supporter, forwarded a Facebook post from a friend. “I know I am going to get fussed at, but I am not motivated to vote,” the woman wrote. “I really feel some type of way about Virginia not having a Black woman as our gubernatorial candidate.”
Ms. Wentz said Mr. McAuliffe had done a good job reaching out to people of color, including in a Zoom meeting with her own organization. “I feel like we’re going to step up,” she said. “We’re not feeling it right now, but I feel like that by Tuesday, people are going to do the right thing. There’s too much at stake.”
The 2020 census confirmed the demographic upheaval of the Richmond region. Within the city, which only last month removed the last Confederate statue — of Robert E. Lee — from historic Monument Avenue, the share of white residents rose over the past decade faster than any locality in the state. Gentrification has transformed industrial areas into neighborhoods of craft breweries and restaurants serving Alsatian cuisine.
At the same time, the Black population swelled in the suburbs: by 25 percent in Chesterfield County, its largest growth among all racial groups. In Henrico County, the populations of Black, Asian and Hispanic residents all rose significantly.
And this would be a historic win:
In a campaign ad for her bid to be Virginia’s next lieutenant governor, Hala Ayala wears a flannel shirt and rings up a purchase at a gas station store at night.
The Democrat says in the ad that “a little help” and “hard work” took her from the minimum wage gas station job she worked while pregnant and without health care to her middle-class life and career as a state legislator.
Ayala, who identifies as Afro Latina, told NBC News she created similar economic opportunity for Virginians as a state delegate, such as voting for a minimum wage increase, which she's confident will help pull voters, including Hispanics, to her corner.
“I was elected to office because I did the hard work,” said Ayala, who made history when she was elected in 2017 to the Virginia House of Delegates as one of the first two Latinas to serve in the chamber. Ayala's father is aSalvadoran and North African immsaid her father is from El Salvador with African roots and her mother is Lebanese-Irish.
If she wins, she'd be in the history books again: Virginia has never elected a woman or a Latino as lieutenant governor.
And McAuliffe has been pushing a key issue:
McAuliffe has pledged to pursue legislation at the state level that would guarantee an unspecified amount of paid sick days and family medical leave. He’s also released several ads highlighting his commitment to the issue. Youngkin's campaign has not said where he stands on paid family leave.
The risk for McAuliffe is that paid family leave is a particularly tangible component of a broader piece of legislation that Democratic leaders have often struggled to explain and its elimination could be particularly stinging.
Some prominent activists, including the actor Alyssa Milano, encouraged women to consider other provisions in the package, including free prekindergarten, new child care subsidies and a one-year extension of a child care tax credit that was put in place during the COVID-19 rescue.
Kristina Hagen, the director of the Virginia Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy, said the measure would be “transformative for Virginia families.”
“This is why,” Hagen said in a statement, “with just five days left in the 2021 cycle, we are leaning in on our full support for Terry McAuliffe.”
Also, look who’s chickening out:
Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin will not participate in a virtual rally hosted by former President Donald Trump on Monday, the day before the election. “I’m not going to be engaged in the tele-town hall,” he told reporters on Saturday, according to CNN. “The teams are talking, I’m sure.”
Then again, this idiot sure isn’t helping Youngkin’s cause:
Virginia Attorney General Mark R. Herring’s office Thursday pressed a surrogate of Republican gubernatorial nominee Glenn Youngkin to share evidence supporting her claims that Democrats are trying to “steal” Tuesday’s election — allegations Herring (D), who is running for reelection, called a ploy to undermine voters’ confidence in the outcome before the results are in.
State Sen. Amanda F. Chase (R-Chesterfield), who has been working to rally the state’s conservative Trump-aligned voter base on behalf of Youngkin, recently told conservative talk radio host John Fredericks that she has shared evidence of a Democratic voting-fraud scheme with the Youngkin campaign.
Chase — who first aired her allegations at a GOP rally earlier this month that featured a telephone call from former president Donald Trump — has also said that she met with a man who she said thwarted an online effort to “install” Hillary Clinton as president in 2016.
Chase said she knew about a similar plan on behalf of Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic nominee for Virginia’s governor.
“He showed me . . . exactly how they’re stealing elections in Virginia,” Chase told Fredericks during another appearance on his show. “They’re moving, in cyberland, they are switching inactive voters to active voters, all in the same week, it’s undetectable. I know what they’re doing, John, and now the Youngkin campaign has all that information and they’re not going to get by on us this year, I’m telling you.”
Youngkin said Thursday that he knew nothing about Chase’s allegations and believes that the election will be fair.
“I haven’t heard from the senator on this one, so I don’t know,” Youngkin told reporters at an event in Appomattox, according to a recording provided by his campaign. “I believe this election will be fair. I believe this election will come out big time in our favor.”
Also, pretty brutal takedown:
A former Republican candidate in Virginia has endorsed Democratic gubernatorial contender Terry McAuliffe, saying that the "GOP has lost its way."
The governor's race in Virginia is being closely watched by Republicans and Democrats, as they view the election as a key indicator of how voters could cast their ballots in the 2022 midterms. Recent polls suggest the margin is close between the two candidates, with some showing Republican Glenn Youngkin in the lead while others show McAuliffe narrowly ahead.
In an opinion article for Business Insider, Matt Walton, who ran as a Republican for the Virginia House of Delegates in 2015, voiced his support for McAuliffe while slamming Youngkin. He ripped the GOP gubernatorial candidate for embracing fellow Republicans who falsely claim the 2020 election was fraudulent.
"In fact, one of Youngkin's key earlier supporters and prominent surrogate Delegate John McGuire admitted to being at the January 6th rally (though he denies going into the Capitol). Additionally, Youngkin has even embraced and campaigned with State Senator and Trump wanna-be Amanda Chase, who not only was present at the January 6th rally, but also attended the election 'cyber symposium' put on by Mike 'My Pillow' Lindell," Walton wrote.
"It is pathetic that Youngkin openly embraces people that sought to overturn the vote of not just the American people, but more importantly the very people that he wants to represent as Governor," he added.
In the article, Walton asserted that he has "chosen to support McAuliffe because the GOP has lost its way, and the Republican candidate, Glenn Youngkin, hasn't earned my support or vote."
It all comes down to turnout which is why Stacey Abrams’ Fair Fight is helping boost GOTV operations. Received this e-mail this week from Fair Fight:
Election Day in Virginia is right around the corner! Organizers and volunteers have been working tirelessly to make sure every eligible voter can cast their ballot and make their voice heard. Now they’re in the final stretch and need YOUR help.
Here’s what YOU can do:
- Reach out to everyone you know in Virginia to make sure they’ve checked out iWillVote.com and made their plan to vote! Then, share this link on social media.
- Volunteer at a Get-Out-The-Vote event near you! Knocking on doors is still the #1 way you can help in Virginia, but if you can’t make it in person, sign up to phonebank instead! Check out your volunteer options here.
- Sign up here to become a Voter Protection Super Volunteer! There are many roles available, and most can be done from home.
There’s just one week left; we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Thank you for all the work you’ve done so far and for doubling down during this final stretch to support Terry McAuliffe and Democrats up and down the ballot.
A strong economy, a steady recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, and our freedom to vote are all on the ballot. We know the stakes. Let’s get it done.
— Team Fair Fight
Click here to check your voting status.
Click here to sign up to GOTV phonebank.
Click here to become a Voter Protection Super Volunteer.
Early voting in Virginia has already started. Click here to register to vote, look up your voting info, find your polling place or ballot drop-off location.
Democracy and Health are on the ballot this year and we need to be ready to keep Virginia Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with McAuliffe and his fellow Virginia Democrats campaigns:
Virginia Democratic Party
Terry McAuliffe
Hala Ayala
Mark Herring