The House Managers wrapped up their presentation yesterday. To provide a quick summary, they established among other things:
- Trump deliberately primed his followers over months with the Big Lie: the only way he could lose was if the election was rigged. (Something he’d also said back in 2016). He followed that up by insisting the vote was rigged, that the election was being stolen and that he won in a landslide. He has never backed off on the Big Lie.
- He refused to accept the results of the election. He attacked officials for doing their jobs to certify the results, including Republicans, putting lives in danger.
- “Stop the count,” “Stop the steal.” He repeated the Big Lie over and over.
- He knew his followers could be violent — as per episodes with the Biden campaign bus in Texas, the takeover of the State House in Michigan, the attempted kidnapping of Governor Whitmer, Charlottesville. He did not condemn it — he praised them.
- The January 6 rally at the White House had been signaled for weeks ahead of time as the last chance to “Stop the Steal”. (“It will be wild!”) His followers made plans and were ready to attack the Capitol on that day.
- Trump’s campaign devoted millions of dollars to messaging the Big Lie for weeks and months.
- The mob believed they had been called to Washington by Trump. They believed the election was stolen. They were told they had to “Fight Like Hell.” They were ready to attack even before Trump finished his speech. They believed he was telling them to attack. (Fight for Trump.) He told them where to go.
- Trump betrayed his oath of office.
- Trump failed as Commander in Chief.
- Trump did immense damage to the country: people died, people were injured, it emboldened our enemies, it destabilized the country, it continues to cost us in emotional and financial terms, and in continued threats of more violence.
- Only chance kept it from being far worse. The mob contained people who were on a kill mission. Trump targeted his own Vice President. (Hang Mike Pence.) The mob was looking for anyone they could capture — Republicans and Democrats alike.
- Trump repeatedly did nothing to stop the violence, despite calls coming from multiple people. He enjoyed the attack. He repeatedly told the attackers he loved them, that they were patriots, that they had had their country stolen.
- Trump has shown no remorse. He has still refused to concede the election. He promises to be back. He remains a threat.
The House managers documented this with Trump’s own words, including his tweets and video clips. They have mountains of evidence. (Digby has a number of video clips of highlights.)
The defense also has Republican Senators who continue to refuse to even admit the trial is constitutional, who have largely ignored the testimony. Some of them are actively working with Trump’s defense team for the rebuttal. In a normal trial, that would look a lot like some kind of jury tampering. It’s a clear violation of their constitutional duty.
So, how will the defense respond?
This is based on hints as well as standard Republican messaging strategy. I’m making guesses here, so what they will actually do remains to be seen, but I think this is likely — and that the Republicans will try to use it for talking points going forward. As Digby says, shamelessness is their superpower.
- Expect a Gish Gallop. They will throw out as much garbage as they can to confuse the issues, to see what they can make stick, to establish false narratives.
- They will make heavy use of the First Amendment argument, saying that to prosecute Trump for exercising his right to free speech is unconstitutional.
- They will also continue to question the constitutionality of the Senate trial.
- They will use denial as much as possible. They will deny Trump could have known what would happen. They will deny Trump was calling for violence — look for them to make repeated use of his token denials and calls for ‘peaceful protest’.
- Their messaging will be tailored for the Fox News audience and right wing media, which will repeat it and amplify it. Watch for much false outrage and calculated hissy fits.
- They will use the “I know you are but what am I” defense — they will attack Democrats as hypocrites and paint them as even more violent and deceitful. They will attempt to make Trump and his followers look like the victims. Look for video clips of any time any Democrat used the word “fight” anywhere.
- They will paint a picture of “American carnage” — cities in flames across the country because of Democrat hate groups — Black Lives Matter and Antifa. They will paint a picture of police being attacked by Democrat mobs. They will paint a picture of Democrat hate messaging.
- They will try to suggest that it was really Democrat hate groups in the mob that stormed the Capitol — despite all the evidence to the contrary.
- They will attempt to shift blame — that it was not Trump’s fault for failing to provide backup for the Capitol Police. “No one could have known.” They will attempt to blame Democrats for failing to take precautions.
- They will maintain this is entirely partisan — because Democrats fear Trump and don’t want to face him in 2024. They will try to cast doubt on the election, claiming Trump had legitimate reasons to question the election results. They will probably attack the press as well.
- They will continue to deny that impeachment is legitimate, that there is no legitimate reason to put Trump on trial because he’s no longer president (even though he still refuses to admit he lost.) They will deny Trump is still a threat, because he’s been largely silent since retreating to Mar-a-Lago.
- They will insist it’s time to move on, that bringing all of this up is being done for partisan advantage by the Democrats, that it will only inflame matters and lead to more violence.
- There will be suggestions that this is all desperation by Democrats, that the Biden administration is trying to create a distraction away from a massive socialist agenda that millions of Americans rejected when they voted for Trump. They will proclaim it as evidence that Biden is lying when he says he wants to unite the country, that Democrats will try to use this as an excuse to use their slim control of Congress to ram through a radical agenda while riding roughshod over Republicans. They will claim this makes bipartisanship impossible.
- They will attempt to paint Trump and the Republican Party as the real victims. They will claim Democrats never accepted Trump as a legitimate president and worked to undermine him from Day One. Like all abusers, it is never their fault — they were provoked. They had no choice. They did nothing wrong.
That’s my guess. If anyone wants to use this as the basis for a drinking game, please do not attempt to drive or operate heavy machinery — and you may not make it past the first hour of the defense presentation…
Further Thoughts
The House Managers have gone out of their way to avoid openly calling out the Republicans who also backed Trump’s coup attempt and continue to support him. Democrats will have to work with them (or around them) for the indefinite future. This will allow a polite fiction that they can be treated as honorable Americans and not seditionist traitors of a racial party of extremists well gone into Fascism. Call it practical hypocrisy — but it should not be an excuse for inaction.
One wonders what might have been accomplished if the House Managers had chosen to highlight the role Right Wing Media like Fox, Newsmax, OAN, etc. had played in all this and continue to play.
There seems to be a growing recognition that Fox News can’t be ignored as the threat it is. Nicholas Kristof was asking the other day Can We Put Fox News on Trial with Trump? Kevin Drum has been warning about Fox for some time now: What Can We Do About Fox News?, Fox News Is the Source of All Evil, and Fox News is Destroying America. Right wing media is the other superpower Republicans have, and it goes beyond shameless.
Democrats already have concluded that there is no way 17 Republicans will vote to convict Trump, even though Moscow Mitch McConnell has given them permission to vote their hypothetical consciences. This trial has really been aimed at the American people who aren’t Trump cult members. It has put together a Big Picture of what Trump and Trumpism really is.
Trumpism IS the GOP these days. Going forward, Democrats need to build on this and tie it to the Republican Party in every way. They have demonstrated how Trump was repeatedly normalized over time, and must not allow Republicans to keep getting away with the same old things.
The mainstream media is still heavily conditioned by right wing intimidation. For the moment they are more open to seeing what has been happening right in front of them all along. The old reflexes are still there though, as Eric Boehlert continues to point out. Biden has 98% approval rating from Democrats — where's the avalanche of media coverage? As for the trial, Media won’t tell the truth about GOP's impeachment cowardice.
Beohlert also references Charlie Pierce: Republican Politicians Now Fear For More Than Just Their Political Lives.
Having watched the prosecution present its case in The Second Impeachment for two days, and preparing to watch the wrap-up on Thursday, I have discovered that there are two emotions for which I have no patience any more. First, the events of January 6 no longer make me sad. I do not mourn any more. I’m ready to march on Harfleur. I have nothing left but what Shakespeare calls “hard-favored rage.” The other state of being for which I no longer have time is mystification. As in, “How can Republicans still essentially vote in favor of the mob that came after the Congress with blood in its eyes?”...
Pierce is looking at an NPR report: A 'Scary' Survey Finding: 4 In 10 Republicans Say Political Violence May Be Necessary.
The reality is, although the House Managers were careful not to say so, that this has really been a trial of the radical right Republican Party. The vote to acquit Trump seems inevitable — and that all by itself is warning that this is not over. The Republican Party is still an existential threat to America.
The coming prosecutions of the insurrectionists in the months ahead will provide continuing opportunities for Democrats to make that case, to play up all the connections to the Trump, the GOP, and right wing media. The Republican Party has made no bones about their belief that the Democratic Party cannot be treated as legitimate, that only Republicans should be allowed to run the country.
There can be no accommodation with them — it’s analogous to the situation Lincoln addressed with his Cooper Union speech. The only thing Republicans will accept is total capitulation to them in every regard.
They have no choice, because opposition to Democrats is all they have to offer. They are post-policy. The key element of Trumpism is “owning the libs” and for that the GOP base will follow them right over the cliff.
They would rather rule than govern. Although the original context is very different, the sentiments in the poem “The Old Issue” linked below have wider applicability and relevance to today.
No truce with kings.
Friday, Feb 12, 2021 · 4:19:14 PM +00:00
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xaxnar
UPDATE: Pierce has weighed in on the verdict. The outcome of Donald Trump's impeachment trial is predetermined, not unlike a trial down in Mississippi in 1964.
...I was led to wondering about that because a majority of the Republican senators sitting in judgment of Donald Trump are going to have to ignore even more empirical evidence than the Evers jury did. For three days, the House managers unleashed a mudslide of evidence in support of the charge that the former president* had incited a mob to deadly insurrection. The Republicans have to ignore it all and participate in a predetermined bag-job that can stand with any produced by all-white juries in the Jim Crow South.
Friday, Feb 12, 2021 · 6:45:48 PM +00:00
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xaxnar
Update: The interesting thing to watch will be how the media treats the defense testimony during the recesses. Will they give it the “both sides” treatment, or will they call it out for the lies, slander, and disinformation it is? Will they recognize that Trump’s lawyers and the GOP are engaging in Trump tactics — and will they ask how much of the strategy is coming from Trump, or from Cruz, Graham, Lee, and the other members of the GOP sedition caucus. What will the nightly news summary look like?