There are many breathless stories in the main-stream media about the failure of the Republican party because of voters changing their registration after the January 6 insurrection. The folks leaving the party is good news, but it isn’t as large as reported, as Dems are also leaving (in smaller numbers). So what does the polling show, and should we trust it?
First, ~150,000,000 people voted in the Presidential election. That is a huge number, but it also means the 140,000 voters leaving the Republican Party since January 6 is a relatively small proportion (thehill.com/...). Does it reflect a bigger change?
When we look at party affiliation in polling, the news is not as good. It shows that numbers for both parties have dropped, albeit as different times (Gallup; news.gallup.com/...).
“Republicans |
Independents |
Democrats |
|
% |
% |
% |
2021 Jan 21-Feb 2 |
25 |
50 |
25 |
2021 Jan 4-15 |
24 |
45 |
30 |
2020 Dec 1-17 |
25 |
41 |
31 |
2020 Nov 5-19 |
30 |
38 |
31 |
2020 Oct 16-27 |
31 |
36 |
31”
|
So what does that mean? Who knows, but there is other data that might show worse news for Republicans. Namely, party favorability. When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of each party the news for Republicans is much worse (news.gallup.com/...):
“Story Highlights
- 37% have positive view of Republican Party, down from 43%
- 48% have positive view of Democratic Party
- Republicans' favorable rating of GOP down 12 points”
This polling give Dems a huge 11 point advantage in party favorability, representing millions of people. This seems a lot more important than any change in party registration. That said, the party affiliation number shows a real risk for Dems and Repubs alike. There are a lot of people who are still in the middle (I’m not in the middle, I’m just reporting numbers).
To me, messaging is primary. Why? Dems need to win at their game, messaging in meaningful ways. For example, the “DeFund the Police” policies are very popular, but when Repubs were allowed to lie about what the sound bite meant, a lot of low information fell for the lie.
Messaging matters…and the battle continues….