Donald Trump (Insurrectionist-FL), apparently in the attempt to stay relevant, endorsed the widow of Congressman Ron Wright on Monday in Saturday's special election to replace the short-timer in Congress. You may have heard about it, but even if you didn't, you were more likely to have than voters here. It landed in Texas like a dud.
Not that Trump isn't popular in TX-06. At least among Republicans. But what voters in Tarrant County, where 70% of the voters are in CD-06, are concerned about are the local elections for mayor and school boards -- and that's what the local media is covering. Even the local Fox station was sparing in coverage of this race. Newsmax has something, though!
Not that I think the King of the Insurrectionists cares about his coverage in the Dallas-Ft. Worth media market (maybe he does -- who knows?) but his efforts to support the consensus front runner late in the game — when most of the Republicans running in this jungle primary have been claiming not that they had Trump's support, but that they were most Trumpian — are falling flat.
After a memorable winter, with colder temperatures and more power outages than anyone would like, "God sure has been sending us a message." Even the border surge isn't at the top of voters' minds. "We didn't need another reminder."
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been doing GOTV canvassing in the TX-06 special election to fill the Wright vacancy. We are knocking on the doors of Democrats and Independents who have voted in recent Democratic primaries asking them to vote in Saturday's election. We are not endorsing a candidate, merely urging Democrats to vote so that 1.) we force a runoff and, 2.) that one of those candidates is a Democrat. For those who requested (and received) a Ballot by Mail, we are reminding them that their ballot has to be received by Saturday, May 1, 2021 at 7:00 p.m. to count.
Efforts have been ramping up towards tomorrow's vote. In the special election for TX-06, 45,365 people have voted early in-person and by mail -- 31,117 voters in Tarrant County, 12,128 in Ellis County and 2,120 in Navarro County. Hope Springs from Field PAC has contacted 11,481 Democrats and Independents who have voted in recent Democratic primaries and who have not voted (yet). That is where we are now focused, making sure that they get out and vote in this race.
Obviously, we need your help. This week has been especially frightful, with high winds and even hail, but we have had volunteers . If you support field/grassroots organizing, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/tx-06field
Hope Springs from Field PAC was started by former Obama Field Organizers because field was the cornerstone of our success. The approach we adopted was focused on listening, on connecting voters and their story to the candidate. Face to face interactions, even masked and socially distanced, are critical. And we are among those Democrats who believe that we didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors. In areas like Texas, it is even more crucial, since many Democratic voters feel isolated, even surrounded, and are often unaware of the fact that their neighbors and colleagues are Democrats, too!
But even with the challenging weather this week, Trump’s “sudden presence” in this race has been notable in it’s lack of effect. Today, this endorsed candidate, Susan Wright, has been everywhere complaining about robocalls that say, “Susan Wright murdered her husband. She’s now running for Congress to cover it up.” Had Trump cut a robocall for her, she would have been proclaiming that instead. Not that this isn’t ridiculous, but it is revealing that instead of talking about Trump’s endorsement she is complaining about what is a rather normal occurrence in Southern politics, especially on the Republican side.
Trump's endorsement was supposed to be the coup de grâce. Wright has been the acknowledged front-runner from the beginning -- but she hasn't really gone anywhere. She started this race polling 21% and ended it polling 22%. Special elections are difficult to poll, but the fact that this race has stayed in the same range throughout is curious.
A lot of people assumed that as the incumbent's widow, Wright would be given some deference (widow’s succession). We haven't really noticed that to be the case. Ron Wright had just been elected to Congress in 2018, and his death (Covid-19 related) seems to be something few people want to give thought to. But, "Widow’s succession 'used to be the norm and it is now quite clearly the exception.'"
No one would be surprised if Trump didn't know that (or the fact that Wright hasn't really moved up in support during the campaign). Trump wants to be seen as a winner -- and he wants to endorse winners. It's just the timing is so, so, so bad!
Weather, competition, media focus on local races and meager turnout (in 2019, only 8% of voters turned out for these elections!), even lower name recognition for Wright than expected, all point to more of a gamble than Trump probably imagined.
Tomorrow we expect more than 200 volunteers to knock on doors throughout the day, dragging people to Vote Centers to vote. At least a third of them have committed to multiple shifts. This is in addition to the efforts of the Democratic candidates, which seem to each be mostly focused on different areas of Tarrant County.
While I can't say that our main interest is in embarrassing Trump (that's just icing on the cake!), Trump has injected himself in this race and fallen flat in the effort. Not exactly what anyone would have expected in Texas.
If we are successful, tomorrow forces a runoff between a Republican (likely Wright) and a Democrat. That is the first step. The runoff is step two. If you would like to support our efforts to increase Democratic turnout in tomorrow’s special election and force a runoff, please do:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/tx-06field