As we move from the Holocene to the Anthropocene, we are leaving a period of unprecedented calm into a period of global change with an uncertain future.
Everything in the world is connected, even if we do don’t see every connection for certain and small changes can have catastrophic non-linear effects on a complex system [Chaos Theory].
In engineering and science, we have boundaries that are limits beyond which the effects are irreversible, i.e. tipping points. For example the elastic limit, pull on an elastic band then release it, it returns to its original length, pull harder, and you go beyond the elastic limit, let go, and the length has increased, its thickness has been reduced. Pull again, and you do not need to apply much force, and it breaks. The tipping point occurred as soon as the rubber band went beyond its elastic limit and could not return to its original form. Catastrophic failure was then easy to predict and to cause.
The way I experimented with tipping points in a complex system is as follows.
Take a large irregular sheet and various cylinders of different lengths, thicknesses, composition and irregularity [e.g. glassware]. Now balance the cylinders on their shortest side on the sheet as you wish. You have a relatively stable system.
Now as we move into the experimentation phase, very slowly tilt the table [global change], some less stable cylinders begin to wobble, but everything is still by and large OK. Tilt the table further and some pieces on the most irregular surfaces being tall, thin and with high centres of gravity fall over, some may even make nearby cylinders fall over [localized effect], this is one tipping point.
Now take some heavy weights [localized variable] and place them randomly on the table causing localized variations in cylinder e.g. tilt angle, some more cylinders fall possibly taking a few others with them. Still the vast majority remain standing, so we are just about fine, we can clean up the mess.
Now vibrate the sheet gently [secondary global variable], increase the amplitude until the next cylinder falls. OK, OK there is quite a lot of wobbling but if we act now it might turn out fine.
Now increase the angle of tilt and vibrations at a faster rate of change, put on more weights, right, who is going to clean up this mess Even if you return the system [sheet] to a stable state the cylinders are still tipped over and many are broken [mass glassware event]. If you have been lucky, enough of your mother’s precious glassware remains intact, so that you may once again, in the future, be allowed out of your room.
Now leaving my experimentations in chaos theory behind me [sorry mom] what has this got to do with anything.
The Holocene period was one of relative stability and allowed civilization [debate about this is for another day] to generally flourish.
The Anthropocene is the glass breakage period and the choices we make determine the outcome/endgame [duration of the potential grounding period].
Whether we are still in the Holocene or have entered the Anthropocene are a matter for debate, I’m a pessimist by nature [mom, you should be sorry].
Just an early morning muse/thought
I should have settled for using my imagination, but the engineer/researcher was strong in me. I still have the notes and calculations, no no no I am not going to repeat, well, maybe, use the computer that’s what it is for, not as exciting though…….
;-)
A musical memory [circa 1992 Diva album]