Manchin is trying to tell progressives in the US House of Representatives that he won’t vote for a reconciliation bill that is over $1.5 trillion over ten years. That would only be $200 Billion ($50B from the bipartisan bill and $150B from the reconciliation ) in new spending each year, a small fraction of the gross domestic product of the United States . Because republicans continue to refuse to get vaccinated, the Delta variant is creating a surge in cases and hospitalizations which will lead to a surge in deaths. This is slowing the economy which produced about 500,000 fewer jobs than expected in the most recent quarter. Fears of the economy overheating and a runaway inflation rate are unjustified.
The climate emergency is here. The latest IPCC report has made it clear. Because of feedback loops, expectations consistently worsen. Anybody who has worked on Capitol Hill will tell you that every new bill passed makes the next one harder to pass and every new dollar spent makes the next dollar harder to spend. The next Congress is unlikely to be more likely to address climate change than the current one and that holds true for the next seven years. This is our only realistic opportunity to pass a bill that at least attempts to address the climate emergency for the next seven years. Why do I say that? In a word, history. The pandemic is worsening. The economy isn’t roaring back as quickly as we would wish as a result. President Biden’s approval rating is falling. We are unlikely, therefore, to increase our majorities after the 2022 elections. Moreover, we face the results of redistricting and gerrymandering and voter suppression laws . We needed a lot of republican votes for Biden to win in 2020. That’s why we didn’t do as well as we had expected. Based upon history, gerrymandering, voter suppression and possibly an economy that is still weakened by the pandemic, I don’t see why we would expect a bigger majority in Congress after the 2024 elections. Based upon history, the six year midterms of a president are bloodbaths for the political party holding the White House. Therefore, it’s unlikely that we will be in a better position to pass a bill which significantly addresses the climate emergency any time over the next seven years. Hence, we either attempt to address the climate emergency now or we don’t address it over the next seven years.
If the reconciliation bill which addresses the climate emergency is decoupled from the bipartisan infrastructure bill, then the climate emergency won’t be addressed by Congress in all probability in the foreseeable future. It would, therefore, be irresponsible in the extreme to not make the passage of the bipartisan bill which does almost nothing for climate change contingent upon passage of the reconciliation bill.
Everybody can get a win here. The progressives in Congress will vote to pass the bipartisan bill as is if the conservative sabotage squad in the US House of Representatives and Manchin will vote to pass the reconciliation bill essentially as is. Manchin is threatening to not pass the reconciliation bill unless its topline number representing the amount of investment is cut in half or worse.
Manchin is the one who is insisting on drastic changes in the bill he dislikes; progressives in Congress are not insisting upon drastic changes in the bipartisan bill they don’t favor. Therefore, it’s clear that if neither bill passes, then it will be because of Senator Manchin and his conservative sabotage squad in the US House of Representatives.
If the progressives in Congress don’t hold to their principles, then the climate emergency doesn’t get addressed for the foreseeable future. That’s not an option. So, they don’t have an option to simply go along with whatever King Manchin will accept. They have to insist that the reconciliation bill stays pretty close to what it is. If they do, then Manchin will find out that he’s actually not the king. Rather, he is 1 of 268 needed votes- 218 in the US House of Representatives and 50 (plus VP) in the US Senate. If they remain strong, then Manchin will have to decide if he wants to kill the whole infrastructure package or gain a little needed humility and accept both bills essentially as they are so that the bipartisan bill can pass.
Does he really want to be the main reason why 2 bills fail that the entire rest of the party (besides he and Cinema ) including the guy who won 81 million votes back ? Does he want to cause the bipartisan bill he likes to fail ? That would be disastrous and his own fault since progressives will vote for the bipartisan bill as is so long as the conservative sabotage squad and Manchin will do the same with the reconciliation bill. Manchin would be requiring both bills be exactly like he wants. Progressives aren’t requiring Manchin to change the bipartisan bill. They are simply requiring one bill to at least attempt to address the climate emergency and strengthen the safety net.
When 98% + of the caucus will back both bills as they are, then why would anybody, especially on Daily Kos, argue that Manchin should get things entirely his way when his way differs from almost the entirety of the rest of the caucus and it means not even attempting to address the climate emergency? The main problem in Congress is that Joe Manchin and the House sabotage squad don’t understand that we are facing a very real climate emergency.
The real problem here on this website is that some Kossacks are deniers and delayers essentially. If they understood that we really are facing a climate emergency, then they would not argue to allow only the bipartisan bill to pass . If they admitted we are facing a genuine climate emergency, then they would admit that we have to address it now since there is no chance of doing anything significant on climate after infrastructure is done.
Who believes Manchin would support a bill that addresses the climate emergency with an appropriate investment of several trillion dollars (over ten years) as a stand alone bill? It’s obvious he won’t. We aren’t likely to be in a better position to pass such a bill after the 2022 elections nor after the 2024 elections and the 2026 elections are likely a bloodbath for us given history. So, it’s now or not in the foreseeable future. Therefore, these people are actually advocating on Daily Kos for no significant legislative action on climate change for at least the next seven years. That’s the outcome that these people on Daily Kos are fighting for. It’s also the same outcome that Joe Manchin and the conservative sabotage squad are fighting for. Progressives here and in Congress can’t let them get away with this; we must stand our ground!