This district is seriously at risk of flipping to the other side this year. The previous incumbent, Rep. Josh Harder, hopped to the open 9th district as I profiled here. The Central Valley of California is known for a drop off on our side during midterms. We will have to work very hard to hold this seat, and that goes doubly for our nominee — Adam Gray for California’s 13th district!
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Adam Gray for California-13!
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Candidate Background
Adam Gray has a background that many in the Central Valley have — he was raised on a farm and had to pitch in to make ends meet. This molded him into the candidate he is today.
- He worked on a dairy farm in order to pay for his college experience. He earned a bachelor’s degree in political science from University of California — Santa Barbara.
- He worked behind the scenes in the State Legislature for many different campaigns, always trying to help the farmers back home in the Central Valley. This caused him to buck his party on occasion.
- Gray finally sought elected office in the 21st district of the California Assembly, which he won in 2012. After a close race in 2014, he has not faced a close race since.
Signature Issues
Adam Gray is very likely to be in the New Democratic Coalition and the Problem Solvers Caucus, both of which tend to attract more moderate members of our caucus. He will likely buck our party on some issues, just like he does in the California Assembly. Here are some issues critical to his district.
Water Rights: This is a hot topic in the western United States, especially with the region in a megadrought. He has opposed water schemes that rob farmers of their water in exchange for taking it south to Los Angeles. He also prioritizes funds for water bonds for better water storage.
Agriculture: He will fight for better tax incentives for agriculture, just like he fought to eliminate the “tractor tax” in the state legislature. He made sure that Future Farmers of America (FFA) chapters that serve high schools still had funds to continue their work.
Public Safety: Unfortunately, parts of his district have a high murder rate. He supports more police funding to tackle a serious gang problem in the Central Valley. He still will support some police reforms, such as a ban on chokeholds and officers wearing body cameras.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 54.3%, TFG (R-inc) 43.4%
2020 House: Josh Harder (D-inc) 55.2%, Ted Howze (R) 44.8%
NOTE: Rep. Josh Harder has jumped to the 9th district for 2022
2022 PVI: D+4
2022 Race Rating: Tossup
The Central Valley is an area that has frustrated Democratic strategists in the state of California for a while now. Demographics point to an area that should be fairly solidly Democratic, yet a combination of undocumented immigrants and midterm drop off conspire together to make it a swing region of the state. This district is no exception to that.
For most of the last decade, this district (numbered the 10th) was held by the GQP. Rep. Jeff Denham was very difficult to dislodge, in spite of Obama and Clinton narrowly carrying the district during their election campaigns. He defeated touted candidate after touted candidate with relative ease. The Central Valley seems to act like that quite frequently.
It took the 2018 blue wave election to finally flip this district. Josh Harder had roots in the district, but not in recent times. What was more important to voters that year was Denham was of the party of TFG, and there was a huge backlash to TFG in 2018. Harder finally won this district for us, and then held it easily in 2020 as well. The problem comes from the fact that this is an open seat once more, giving the GQP an opening to claim it once again.
Political Tour of the District
This district is a battle between the small cities that are heavily Democratic and the farm country which is heavily Republican. The cities have midterm drop off issues, which is why this district is competitive.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 13th district.
- Modesto: This is the largest city in the district, and it is fairly Democratic in nature. This is where midterm drop off can hurt us, and where Adam Gray will have to work hardest to make sure that voters return their ballots.
- Merced: This city is the home base of Adam Gray, and he will have to overperform here and make sure every Democratic voter returns their ballot in order to win. This race is on a razor’s edge, and overperforming here can insulate him from other places.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Small Cities: There are plenty of small cities in the district that lean Democratic. Adam Gray has the task of making sure they return their ballots and stay in the Democratic column. Failure to do so will hand this seat straight the the GQP.
- Farm Country: The big agribusinesses that dominate the Central Valley tend to vote Republican, because the workers they employ tend to be undocumented. Duarte will run up the score in these areas, and it is up to Gray to keep them at Biden margins or a little worse than that.
Activism — Help How You Can!
At the end of June, Adam Gray both raised $402k and had $402k left in the bank. That is when the 2nd quarter deadline happened. He picked up his fundraising for the 3rd quarter, netting $778k. He has $530k to spend in the home stretch. Dark money senses weakness and is on the attack in this district.
The problem lies in the fact that agribusiness owner John Duarte can both self-fund AND outraise Gray. He self-funded $200k and raised $609k in the 2nd quarter for a mammoth $809k haul. His 3rd quarter fundraising was weaker, raising only $555k. His depleted his cash on hand down to $236k.
DONATE TO ADAM GRAY HERE
The way to hold this district is through volunteering. Those texts nagging at you to return your ballot and that canvassing to see what issues to press forward on is more important in a district with huge drop off than in your typical district. The Central Valley is close enough to the San Francisco area that those living there can spend a weekend volunteering. Make it happen!
VOLUNTEER FOR HIS CAMPAIGN HERE
In terms of social media, I was honestly disappointed in what I saw from Adam Gray’s campaign. He has 5.8k followers on Twitter, which is too low at this stage of the game. His campaign also hasn’t tweeted since September 28th (as of 10/15/2022), which isn’t a good sign. He needs to get his message out, and most people get their news from social media these days. His Facebook and Instagram pages are equally empty, which is a red flag for me. I’m genuinely worried about this.
This is the weakest district we hold in California, which is why it is part of the Defending Seats Week. Adam Gray has the right profile to hold this district, but his chances of winning are no better than a coin flip right now. This race may be one of many that decides the fate of the House of Representatives. We need to work hard to make sure we get Gray over the finish line!
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Adam Gray for California-13!
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