I am kicking off Chance to Flip Week with a nasty race brewing in the Central Valley of California. This has been (so far) the most expensive House race this year by advertising, which means it is a red hot race. In order to preserve our tenuous majority, this district and all of those I write about this week MUST FLIP. That is why we need to support Rudy Salas for California’s 22nd district!
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Rudy Salas for California-22!
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Candidate Background
Rudy Salas has a background that exemplifies the Central Valley. He is a lifelong resident of Bakersfield, except when he went off to college to get a degree. It is this that gives me hope that he can win this district.
- Just like his brother and his father, Rudy Salas worked the fields in the Central Valley as a youth. Eventually, that hard work paid off and he earned a degree from UCLA.
- Salas was the first Hispanic city council member in Bakersfield in its entire history. This was groundbreaking for an area that had a Jim Crow past and disenfranchised Hispanic voters repeatedly (sadly, even areas of California aren’t immune from racism).
- When Valadao won his seat in Congress, Salas won a tight election for his Assembly seat in 2012. He has been an effective advocate for the Central Valley, even though it puts him at odds with the state party at times.
Signature Issues
There is no doubt that Rudy Salas will be one of the more conservative Democratic members of our caucus if he is elected to Congress. He is probably the most conservative Democratic member of the California Assembly right now. What is important is keeping Pelosi in the Speaker chair. To do that, we almost certainly need to beat Rep. Valadao.
Jobs and Infrastructure: Salas has consistently fought for the farmers of his district. He supports better overtime protections, an increase in the federal minimum wage, and will look to expand broadband in an area that usually lacks service.
Health Care and Abortion: Salas is pro-choice, and will definitely vote to codify Roe into law. He is working hard to bring healthcare to underrepresented areas like the Central Valley. Finally, he is looking to add dental, vision, and hearing care to be covered by Medicare.
Clean Water: Bakersfield is oil and fracking heaven in California. The water supply isn’t the best, with much of what is left going to oil production or farming water intensive crops. Salas will secure funding for clean water for the Central Valley, where nearly a million people lack it right now.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 55.2%, TFG (R-inc) 42.4%
2020 House: David Valadao (R) 50.5%, TJ Cox (D-inc) 49.5%
2022 Race Rating: Tossup
2022 PVI: D+5
You would think that a district this Democratic would be an easy district to win for our team. Last decade proves that the Central Valley is anything but easy for the Democratic Party. Many weak or flawed candidates were chosen in the primary to face off against Rep. David Valadao, starting with 2012 when Rep. Dennis Cardoza retired. What should have been an easy hold turned into a nightmare.
Valadao pretends to be moderate, and he does have some stances where he genuinely seems to buck his party. But the truth is that he is little different from any other member of the GQP when it comes to too many issues. He did vote to impeach TFG after the 1/6 insurrection, which is the bare minimum. If he survives, he will be only one of two pro-impeachment GQP members left. Obviously, we wish to defeat him!
While he looked invincible most of the last decade, he did fall in the 2018 blue wave election like so many of his fellow California Republicans. Rep. TJ Cox was given no chance of winning, and the major networks even called this race for Valadao on election night. Cox, however, took advantage of late ballots to eke out a narrow win. Sadly, Cox was a shady politician who was dumped for Valadao again in 2020. Now, we have to beat him all over again.
Political Tour of the District
This version of California’s 22nd district (renumbered from the 21st) contains more of Bakersfield and less of the home base of Rep. Valadao. It is consequently a little more Democratic than his previous district, but not so much that he cannot win yet again.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 22nd district.
- Bakersfield: This city is the anchor of the entire district, and the sections of the city placed in the district are blue. They are also plagued by poor turn out in midterm elections. This is the home base of Rudy Salas, which means he cannot afford people sitting this one out.
- Farming Communities: There are plenty of farming communities such as Delano, McFarland, and many more found in the district. They are dots of blue in a sea of red, and it is vital that Salas prevents Valadao from winning over these votes. In a close race, this where it is decided.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Tulare County: While the cities can be blue, most of them are swing areas that are a very light blue. Salas will have to keep these areas at 50-50 while not conceding the rural areas that are red. It will be a tough task for the challenger, as Valadao has roots in the area.
- Kings County: This is the home base of Valadao, and the county is already conservative in nature. Salas will have to keep as close to the Biden margins as possible, or otherwise this county risks upending his strategy, especially since this race will likely be very close.
Activism — Help How You Can!
When it comes to money down the stretch, both candidates have quite a bit of it. Rudy Salas raised $1.17 MILLION for quarter 3, and he needed every penny of it. At the end of September, he still had $518k left to spend, knowing that the media markets covering this district are cheap. That is partially why so much dark money is flooding the district right now.
Rep. David Valadao had a lesser fundraising quarter, but he has a larger war chest left over. Valadao raised $762k in quarter 3, and he still has a hefty $1.44 MILLION left to spend. This, combined with the dark money aiding him, is why he cannot be counted out for winning just yet.
DONATE TO RUDY SALAS HERE
For the life of me, I could not find a link for volunteering on his website. He obviously needs volunteers like any other campaign. He just doesn’t have a link for it on his website. “Sign Up” just gets you alerts from his campaign it seems. If you can find a link to sign up, it would be appreciated.
In terms of social media, Salas has a minimal presence on both Facebook and Twitter. I kind of expected it, as many voters in this district likely do not use social media and some may not even have internet. He has only 2.3k followers on Twitter, which means his message has to get out by other means.
You would think this would be an easy district to flip, but Rep. David Valadao is a canny campaigner and he has hordes of dark money backing him. Our side is also pouring money in, as it is one of the few places we can truly go on the offensive in trying to keep the House. Rudy Salas may not be perfect, but his vote for Speaker Pelosi is definitely what matters and we need him in Congress.
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Rudy Salas for California-22!
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