This district is another key district we need to flip to hold the House. Our challenger has failed twice to beat the incumbent here, and she is taking another whack at unseating him. The high desert exurbs of California seem to vote Democratic for president but GQP for their representatives. Hopefully, Christy Smith has what it takes this time to win over California’s 27th district!
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Christy Smith for California-27!
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Candidate Background
Christy Smith has been running for office most of her adult life, and she also is a Clinton alumnus. That makes her biography not as exciting as some other ones I have done.
- Smith was born on an Army base in Germany. She hopped around as a kid until her family finally settled in Santa Clarita. This is where she’s stayed since childhood and it is her home base politically.
- Smith went to UCLA for a degree in political science. She was a part of the Clinton administration as an education policy analyst. She would eventually run for her local school board, which is often an entry way into elected office for many people.
- Smith would eventually rise to make it the to California Assembly. After failing to win in 2016, she knocked off an incumbent in 2018 during the blue wave. She then used this platform to run for Congress.
Signature Issues
Christy Smith seems to have a fairly liberal issues page. She would likely be in the center of the caucus if elected, with maybe a touch of moderation due to being in a swing seat. She would likely vote on the Biden agenda nearly 100% of the time if elected.
Health Care and Abortion: Smith is pro-choice, and would no doubt like to codify Roe into law. She believes that consumer protections need to be enacted to prevent surprise billing. Finally, she would protect the ACA, Medicare, and Medicaid from the ravages of the GQP agenda.
Education: Smith would work to ensure every student has a quality education. She would hold charter schools accountable, which is too often not the case. She would work to increase the affordability of colleges, universities, and trade schools. Finally, she would raise teacher pay.
Climate Change and the Environment: Smith points out that the wildfires plaguing the state are the result of the warming climate and a mega drought striking the region. Also, she will work to hold agencies implementing clean air and water standards accountable for doing their tasks.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 55.1%, TFG (R-inc) 42.7%
2020 House: Mike Garcia (R-inc) 50.0%, Christy Smith (D) 50.0% (333 vote margin)
2022 PVI: D+4
2022 Race Rating: Tossup
This district has been a tough nut to crack. Numbered the 25th district last decade, the problems started when we were locked out of the Top 2 primary when previous Rep. Buck McKeon retired. That allowed Rep. Steve Knight to come to Congress, and he proved tough to beat in 2016. In spite of Clinton carrying the district, Knight prevailed over the opposition that year.
Of course, the fact that Clinton won his district made Knight extremely vulnerable during the 2018 blue wave election. Rep. Katie Hill easily beat back the incumbent that year, and looked to be a rising star on Capitol Hill. However, she was felled by a sexual scandal before she could finish out one term, and promptly resigned when this was found out.
That opened up her seat to a special election between Mike Garcia and Christy Smith (round 1). Garcia stomped Smith that time around, and it was an ill omen for our prospects in 2020 that was ignored by everyone. Garcia and Smith duked it out again in the general election (round 2), but Garcia prevailed again by 333 votes. Now, it is time for round 3!
Political Tour of the District
This district is much more Republican down the ballot than it appears. It contains the burgeoning high desert exurbs of Los Angeles County, namely Santa Clarita, Lancaster, and Palmdale. People have been moving here because until recently real estate there was cheap.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 27th district.
- Lancaster and Palmdale: These two cities are the blue anchors of the district, and they are critical for the chances of Smith to win. They aren’t reliably blue though, as both cities have a GQP mayor. They still tend to vote GQP down the ballot which will be a problem.
- Santa Clarita: This city is the swing portion of the district, with both light blue and pinkish precincts found within the city bounds. Both candidates are from this area, so it is vital that Smith heavily contests this city and gets above 50-50 in it in order to win.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Rural Areas: The rest of the district is primarily consisted of rural areas, and these are beet red in nature. In a close race, places like Quartz Hill and other rural areas matter. Smith needs to stick to the Biden margins out in the sticks or she will lose a third time to Garcia.
Activism — Help How You Can!
Christy Smith knows how to raise funds. She raised about $1.7 MILLION in the 3rd quarter, which is an excellent haul for a challenger, and it beat Garcia’s haul. She even has $719k cash on hand remaining for the stretch run. This may be a factor in why the DCCC and dark money groups on our side have pulled out of the race.
Rep. Mike Garcia is no slouch either. He raised $1.33 MILLION in the 3rd quarter, which is another excellent haul. He has more cash on hand right now, to the tune of $1.88 MILLION. This cash advantage could be a problem for Smith, especially if dark money continues to hammer her from the GQP side of the race.
DONATE TO CHRISTY SMITH HERE
Volunteers are desperately needed as we are barely two weeks away from the election. California is primarily a mail-in ballot state, so volunteers are all about canvassing, reminding people to turn in their ballots, and protecting the votes of those who have already voted. If you are in the Los Angeles area, please consider signing up to volunteer for this campaign, as it is vital that we win this district!
VOLUNTEER FOR HER CAMPAIGN HERE
In terms of social media, Christy Smith seems to have all of the bases covered. She has built up quite the following after repeated runs for Congress. On Twitter, she has 100k followers, which most incumbents dream of having. She is fairly prolific too! Here she is attacking Rep. Mike Garcia for ducking the media.
She also has quite a few followers on Facebook and Instagram. She even has a YouTube channel for all of her ads that she has run. Here is her latest ad going for the jugular.
Well, the DCCC and dark money on our side have pulled out of this race. Either they are confident that Christy Smith is winning, or they think she has enough money to stand on her own, or they think she will lose. It is hard to say exactly where this race stands, other than it being a part of Chance to Flip Week. Hopefully, the third time is the charm and she finally beats Rep. Mike Garcia.
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Christy Smith for California-27!
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