When I first heard the quote: “ there’s Lies, and Damn Lies, and worst of all Statistics” (which didn’t actually originate with Mark Twain I just discovered. He thought he was quoting Disraeli — but there appears to have been many who expressed a similar sentiment going back to the 1700’s) — I was young and stupid, and thought “but Statistics are science — you can’t use that to LIE”. BWAHAHAHAHA!! I have since learned differently (duh!). Statistics — and especially Polling statistics are the very BEST way to pull the wool over someone’s eyes.
What brought this to mind was a call I just had. The Caller-ID showed as “CHARITY CALL”. i don’t usually answer those — but I was feeling generous. Turns out to be a pollster for the NRA. I actually like taking polls (if I’m not busy) — and I’m a former NRA member — so I figured “what the heck”. She started her question with: “Joe Biden wants to ban ALL semi-automatic firearms — do you support his ...”. I responded with “The question is based on a lie — Biden doesn’t want to ban all semi-automatic firearms. I’m not going to answer your question as asked, though I support Biden — Goodbye”. I know these people read from a script — so this wasn’t an honest mistake — e.g. she didn’t mean to say “assault weapons” or something like that. I’m guessing that if I’d stayed on the phone she would have used her “poll” as a lead-in to ask for money. But it pisses me off that some people will hear that, and believe her lie — and then give money to the NRA and further cement their hatred of Biden.
I’ve seen so many polls that seem completely out of whack with other polls — and my own sense of what people generally think. Every time I think — “what lead-in sentence did they start with, and what was the exact question that they asked”. It feels like pollsters (especially RW ones) are following the politicized media into trying to shape people’s attitudes, instead of legitimately taking the pulse of what people think. My impression is that they feel like if they can publish a poll that says something like: 75% of Americans think Banana Cream Pie is disgusting — people will read that and be swayed by it. We are such a tribal species — in general we want to feel like part of the tribe. If we think that the tribe doesn’t like Banana Cream Pie, AND we don’t have strong feelings on the matter already — then we’re going to start thinking Banana Cream Pie is yucky.
They can move the needle on people’s answers with their lead-ins. Something like: “Given that bananas, once cut, very quickly start turning black and slimy — Banana Cream pie quickly becomes visually and texturally unpleasant. So on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 being don’t like, and 5 meaning you love it — how would you rate Banana Cream Pie”. The lead-in conjures up a pie going bad, and is very unappetizing. It won’t move the needle on everyone who answers, but on enough of them that it would probably change the percentage enough to go from a neutral score to a negative one.
It just sickens me that we can’t trust journalists and politicians and now pollsters. Even if they are caught in a lie — none of them pay any consequences to reputation or job status. The only way they are penalized is if they tell such an egregious lie for long enough that does provable damage to someone that they get sued for it (looking at you Alex Jones, and Sidney Powell).
Anyway — that was my first article, I just wanted to rant about pollsters and the NRA — and there wasn’t a current article that it related to.