If we are losing this district in November, it will be a long and bleak night for our side. This is the #1 pickup opportunity for the Democratic Party in the entire nation. The state legislature gerrymandered this seat so that there was a maximum chance of representation by a member of our party. While she is the favorite, it is not overwhelmingly so. That is why we need to support Nikki Budzinski for Illinois’ 13th district!
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Nikki Budzinski for Illinois-13!
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Candidate Background
Nikki Budzinski definitely has the political pedigree to make it in Congress. She was born in Downstate Illinois and went to school there as well. She has worked behind the scenes a lot, and now she is taking the spotlight and becoming a member of Congress (fingers crossed).
- She interned for many different politicians and organizations in her youth, including Dick Gephardt, Paul Simon, and Planned Parenthood. She also worked for a large union at their DC headquarters. It is this union organizing that brought her to national prominence.
- She was a senior advisor to Gov. JB Pritzker during his 2018 campaign, and she was also chair of the Broadband Advisory Council during the first few years of his first term.
- She was the Chief of Staff for the OMB in Washington DC once Biden was elected. She resigned from that position in order to focus on winning the 13th district of Illinois.
Signature Issues
Budzinski is more likely to join the New Democratic Coalition and be a pragmatic progressive and be slightly right of center in the Democratic caucus. Remember, she will be from a swing seat in Illinois. She will still vote for the Biden agenda nearly 100% of the time. She will be mostly solid on all the issues I currently write about ad nauseum.
Energy and Gas Prices: Buszinski is a proponent of expanding usage of E-15 ethanol, which is required from a district such as this one. While in the short term she supports increased oil and gas production to alleviate prices, she knows electric vehicles are what are required in the future.
Taxes and Inflation: Budzinski would push to repeal the disastrous TFG tax cuts and restore the SALT deduction. To combat inflation, she would support manufacturing returning to our shores to alleviate supply chain and transport issues which are part of the problem with inflation.
Agriculture: As a Downstate district, this issue is too important for her to ignore. She would fight against agribusiness consolidation which is hurting small farms. She would work to implement better soil protection schemes, and she would provide more funding for food security programs.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 54.4%, TFG (R-inc) 43.2%
2020 House: Rodney Davis (R-inc) 54.5%, Betsy Dirksen Londigran (D) 45.5%
NOTE: Rep. Rodney Davis ran in a different district and lost the primary election.
2022 Race Rating: Leans Democratic (flip)
2022 PVI: D+3
Downstate Illinois has been trending hard to the right in recent times. The Illinois Democratic Party tried drawing two Downstate districts that favored them after 2010 redistricting. That plan soon backfired, as they never won the 13th district and the GQP won and kept the 12th district after the 2014 red wave. Democrats are lucky the vote sinks meant for the GQP in the 6th district and the 14th district flipped to our team!
Rep. Rodney Davis did have a few close races in his tenure in DC. He only won 47-46 in 2012 over a perennial candidate, which boded as a promising sign for the prospects of flipping this seat. However, the dreams of capturing this seat were dashed in 2014 and 2016, when Davis would win in landslides. Those two elections weren’t close to competitive, and Democrats largely gave up.
The 2018 blue wave brought this seat back in play once more, as Betsy Dirksen Londigran was considered a good candidate. In one of the closer races during the blue wave election, Davis only won 50.4-49.6 in a major disappointment yet again for our side. The 2020 election was expected to be close once more, but it turned out not to be the case as Davis won again.
Political Tour of the District
This district snakes across Downstate Illinois to pick up as many Democratic voters as possible. It is basically a combination of the blue parts of the 12th district and the 13th district from last decade. Hopefully that is sufficient for this district to flip in 2022.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 13th district.
- St. Louis Suburbs: This area includes heavily black East St. Louis and a college campus in Edwardsville. Buszinski needs to run up the score in these two areas in order to win the district. Sometimes, turnout isn’t the best it could be in both areas.
- Urbana/Champaign: This university town (University of Illinois) is critical to the chances of Budzinski. A strong college vote will definitely put her over the top. A weak college vote means this district continues to be a major disappointment to our side as she might lose.
- Springfield/Decatur: These cities have plenty of blue precincts, and Budzinski needs to keep these cities in her column if she expects to win a seat in Congress. These cities tend to have higher turnout than the rest of the district.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- St. Louis Exurbs: Not all of the St. Louis metro area on the Illinois side of the border is blue. Increasingly, the exurbs of the city are GQP leaning. Budzinski needs to limit how much damage these places cause her campaign and win what votes are there.
- Farm Country: The places that connect the aforementioned cities are beet red in nature. If it is a closer race than expected, Budzinski could lose solely based on a supercharged vote out in the sticks. These areas have trended rightwards, and they could easily hurt us on 11/8.
Activism — Help How You Can!
Nikki Budzinski has used her political connections to their fullest advantage on the fundraising front. She raised a staggering $1.07 MILLION during the 3rd quarter, which is more than enough for the cheap media markets she has to run in. She also has a grand total of $1.04 MILLION left in cash on hand. She is in a strong position to win this district based on this alone.
Regan Deering is the GQP challenger, and she is raising enough to wage a competitive campaign, even though it isn’t the gaudy totals of Budzinski. Deering raised $500k for the 3rd quarter, and she also has $540k still to try and keep this district in GQP hands. Deering may be counting on dark money to prop her up, but it seems the national Republican Party may have triaged this race.
DONATE TO NIKKI BUDZINSKI HERE
In a district as spread out as this one, volunteers are very important. Each of the small cities in this district need their own group of volunteers to turn out the vote. This is especially important in East St. Louis and the college towns found in the district. If you live in Downstate Illinois, please consider volunteering and sign up at the link below. You won’t regret your choice to volunteer!
VOLUNTEER FOR HER CAMPAIGN HERE
In terms of social media, I was surprised that Budzinski has as few followers as she does. She only has 5.9k followers on Twitter, which would be decent a few months ago but in crunch time is too few to effectively fundraise off of and get her message out. She also has Facebook and Instagram accounts, both of which suffer from the same problem.
Nikki Budzinski has the political connections and the district to have a long tenure in Congress if she desires. While the seat does favor our party, it isn’t by an overwhelming amount. This is the district that has the best chance of flipping in Chance to Flip Week, and it would be a shock if we do not win. Here’s to hoping Budzinski is part of the majority instead of stuck as a part of the minority in Congress.
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Nikki Budzinski for Illinois-13!
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