There is a lot to unpack here, but first let me vent some anger. Pundits this past week have gone all in on the red wave narrative, to the point of parody in the case of Jessica Taylor and Cook Political, almost entirely based on GOP partisan polls. Now other than trying to depress our base, the other reason for these polls could be to set establish data to challenge Democratic wins.
But even if you read maddening headlines, stay focused on the unbiased, real numbers. That said Cook Political is among many I could live a trillion years without ever having a need for its name gracing my ears. Now let’s get down to business.
These are predictions. I could be wrong. I am not making vows here, or issuing “I promise to ifs.”
This is based on data.
First the not so great news. Florida looks red. I don’t need to discuss that much further, except that it is so red it could impact our ability to hold the House. I do know why registrations flipped, because a lot of reds from other parts of the country moved there, what I don’t know is why our organizational engagement is so down there. The Florida Democratic Party seems to have no energy.
Charlie Crist was underfunded and he and Val Demings deserved better. She dismantled Marco Rubio in the debate, but there is just no juice there.
Florida should never have reddened before Texas blued. Questions need to be answered.
Speaking of Texas. If you had told me that a Governor could preside over a state that nearly froze to death, literally, the whole state, (you should read my newsletter; the entire state could have been without an electrical grid for months) and the mind-numbingly painful slaughter of innocent children and teachers at an elementary school, precisely because buying an AR-15 there is easier than a woman controlling her own body, I would say the state is ripe for change.
Beto O’ Rourke tried. And as the state leans 10 points redder than neutral, anything less than 10 points would indicate Democrats are having, nationally, a positive night. He is highly unlikely to come out on top, but I believe he gets to within five to seven. Setting up for a competitive 2024 perhaps?
Elsewhere, red will stay red, although Trudy Busch Valentine will, like, Beto, probably keep it under ten in Missouri, also a signal that there is a wave tinged blue. For the most part blue will stay blue. In NY Gov. Hochul leads R-PVI plus 6, if that is worth anything anymore, by 3 according to Siena. If that is true, she wins by 20.
Oregon is a wild card however fundamentals favor Tina Kotek. Their mansion stays blue by 5-8.
OK, let’s talk about the big ones, PA, WI, NC, OH, GA, and NV, and AZ.
In PA high quality Siena polling shows a race that favors John Fetterman 51-45. Early vote indicates this is spot on. There will be a late push of consolidation for Oz, and I expect this race to finish 52-47 for John. (Get used to that 52-47 number, by the way.) Shapiro wins by 15 and keeps the mansion blue.
We will save WI for later.
NC is a tossup, however fundamentals favor Ted Budd. If the wave crests higher than I anticipate, Cheri Beasley, who has worked hard, could win. Right now I have it 51-48 Budd. Still doable, so keep grinding North Carolinians.
OH is interesting. Most of the non-partisan stuff has Tim Ryan tied or slightly ahead, but I am skeptical of Cuyahoga coming out in the numbers needed to offset the east and south of the state. He has run a tough race, but I suspect it will be J.D. Vance by 2.5, Gov. Mike Dewine in a walk.
Georgia is a case study in lunacy and stability. For the most part, Governor Brian Kemp has tried to run as a “generic” Republican, doing the 1990’s Republican schtick and staying away from controversy. It is working, but it is not over. I strongly suspect, as does SurveyUSA, that most polls are off by eight points. This could be a huge shock, but Abrams has a chance to make this race go to a runoff. Realistically however, this feels like a 51-47 race in favor of Kemp.
Senator Warnock is in a much different position. I believe he leads this race and will clear the runoff hurdle, and most non-partisan polling agrees. I have him winning outright with 52-47, and if he does, he will likely have the seat in Georgia as long as he wants it.
Nevada is a flat-footed tossup. Democrats are slightly behind their early vote percentages from 2018 in the state, and I could see the Governor’s race going to a recount. I believe in the Reid Machine however, and I think the Culinary Union will put Cortez-Masto over the top, 50-48. But it is close.
Arizona is showing Democrats doing better in the early vote than either 2018 or 2020. Republicans do not seem to be particularly enthused across the board, as according to polls, the crossover vote in both the Governor’s race and Senate race is 10 percent R to D. Most importantly, the electorate itself is trending blue by registration, the opposite of what is happening in Florida. Sam Almy, a Democratic strategist in Arizona, thinks the final electorate will by plus 5-6 R. For the Republicans to win it probably has to be eight or higher.
I don’t think Lake or Masters win an election with low favorables and losing independents by 15-20 points, but Senator Kelly has been more aggressive than Secretary of State Hobbs in his approach. He has also put up better numbers with Latinos.
I believe Secretary Hobbs wins with 50.7 percent of the vote, and Senator Kelly with 52.7. The Governor’s race could be ugly with the late counting and inevitable protests. Arizona could get hot in Fall.
Upset special: Wisconsin. Crucially, Ron Johnson for the most part has been stuck in the mid to high 40’s and is not beloved. He also had his lunch handed to him by Mandela Barnes in the debate. Wisconsin is a state that is hard to poll, as ABC found out in 2020, but the deep Trump red areas are not energized. I believe Governor Evers wins by four, and Madison sends The Other Mandela to the Senate by 2.
Other places to keep a look out: For a while it looked like Admiral Mike Franken may have a better chance to unseat Chuck Grassley in Iowa than Ryan does to beat Vance, however, that view has shifted. Ohio is in reach, however, Ryan has done himself no favors saying the President should not run in 2024.
In Oklahoma, former Republican turned Democratic State Superintendent Joy Hoffmeister is favored to unseat Governor Kevin Stitt. Even more fascinating, is that the two Horns, (Kendra, Madison, unrelated) are both within ten-ish points in the Senate races. I don’t expect those to go blue, but it has me wondering about Oklahoma’s future. I see a world on the horizon where everything from Oklahoma west is blue, because the metros are growing at a rapid clip and turning blue faster, as a percentage, than the Texas collar counties. It is a smaller state, but do not be surprised if in the next two cycles one of the Senate seats sees a Democrat sitting in it.
Could that happen because of what the electorate decides Tuesday? Not likely. But not impossible.
Both Horns should keep it under ten.
Bellwethers? If VA-2 (Elaine Luria) and VA-7 (Abigail Spanberger) stay blue narrowly, neutral to slightly positive. If they win clearly, very good. NC-13, and OH’s 1 and 9 are worth watching too. If NY-22 goes blue at all, very good. If Florida is “too early to call” very good. If Iowa is “too close to call” it is a very good night, and if Franken wins look for headlines like, “Is this the end of polling?” because we are on track for 235 seats and will have won 54 Senate seats.
One last individual prediction-I predict Christy Smith will take down Mike Garcia in California 27.
Overall Democrats win 51.5-47.3, 225 seats in the House, and 52 in the Senate.
Let’s make it happen!
-ROC
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Love,
-ROC