The Democrats are going to win big tomorrow, and here are five reasons why based on facts:
1. The polls are worthless. They have been increasingly wrong for the past three election cycles. Remember when 538 said, on election day 2016, that Hillary had a 71% chance of winning? Major media has even begun to report on the right-wing pollsters flooding the zone this past two weeks with bad polling to skew the aggregators like 538 to the right. Polls only exist for entertainment purposes and to give the talking heads something to talk about. They're all wrong. Every one of them. Ignore them.
2. Turnout of key demographics. One reason those polls are all wrong is they rely on past voting trends to pick who to poll. There has been a LOT of reporting on the early voting turnout setting records for a midterm (which favors Dems), the youth vote has SURGED this cycle, expected to hit 40%, double the 2018 turnout, and 75% of young voters favor Dems. And sadly, more elderly conservatives have died during the pandemic than any other demo, by a lot, especially in swing and red states. It is looking more and more likely that the number of voters this cycle will easily surpass the 2018 cycle, and the Dems won both chambers that time.
3. Speaking of demographics. Do all those male pundits REALLY think women have forgotten about losing their bodily autonomy? Do they seriously think women are going to vote for a Republican because milk costs .40 cents more a gallon than it did last year and just ignore the GOP plans to turn women into chattel incubators under the control of the American Taliban? yeah, me neither. Registration among women has outpaced men significantly since June, especially in swing and red states, and especially among younger women. They will all be voting, and that statistic is not weighed in ANY of the polls.
4. That F***ing Guy (TFG) still dominates the news cycle. Never before in any administration has the former guy (who lost by 7 million votes) received more press coverage on the daily than the actual POTUS. The GOP (esp. DeSantis) wishes he would go away, but the only person TFG cares about electing is himself, and the toxic candidates he shoved through the primaries are scary as hell. I know Republicans would vote for a ham sandwich if you put an "R" next to its name, but independents, suburban women, and young voters despise TFG, and he's already sucked all the oxygen out of this last weekend's news cycle by *leaking* his plans to declare again on the 14th in open defiance of the subpoena issued by the 1/6 committee. Voters have not forgotten about his attempted Coup, and neither has the DOJ.
5. The last five special elections, even during the height of inflation (which is easing considerably now) were either won by Democrats in surprising outcomes or moved the needle toward them by a significant margin. Those same pollsters and pundits predicted the outcome of the Kansas abortion measure favored the gestational slavery forces by 4 points the morning of election. The outcome was +18 pro bodily autonomy. That's a 22-point whiff! That's like shooting a basket from the 3-point line and hitting the scorekeeper in the face at mid-court. In a red-leaning special election in New York, the Dem won by a comfortable margin (despite the polls). In Alaska, a DEMOCRAT won a House seat. In Alaska? Wow.... In two other special elections in safe Republican seats, the Dems outperformed the 2020 vote by 6 points. That's a big shift to the left.
BONUS REASON: According to Simon Rosenberg, a respected analyst at NDN looking at the early voting numbers, the Dems have already built a 4.3 million vote firewall and are up by 11 points going into election day. The GOP typically outperforms Dems on election day, but never by more than 4 points.
While the GOP only needs to pick up four seats in the House to take control, and several new seats have been gerrymandered heavily to favor them, it is still possible the GOP takes the gavel, but I'm cautiously optimistic about our chances based on these five facts alone. Tuesday will tell, and if you have not yet voted... Please, for all that you hold dear in the world, go VOTE! It could make all the difference.