Republicans are poised to win a remarkably slim majority in the US House of Representatives. Remarkable because of how very narrow that majority may be — just 4 or 5 seats. As the opposition party, Republicans had numerous advantages in the 2022 mid-term elections. Mid Terms historically favor the party out of power and this year that advantage should have been amplified enormously due to recently gerrymandered districts in states controlled by Republican state legislatures, low popularity of the president, high gas prices and the highest inflation rates in 40 years. Republicans had copious amounts of corporate dark money, overtly friendly broadcast ‘news’ organizations including not just Fox and Sinclair en.wikipedia.org/… but also now CNN (under its new owners), organizations that in the lead up to the 2022 mid-term elections, shamelessly shilled for them on the ‘fear’ issues of inflation, immigration, high gas prices and crime.
Given their inherent advantages, Republican’s expected to take a 30 seat majority in the House. While the ‘Red Wave’ they hoped for broke far from shore, it is small comfort that their House majority has fallen short of Republican expectations, because a majority however slim it may be is still a majority, and that means Republican’s will seat all of the committee chairmen and Kevin McCarthy will become the next Speaker of the House.
Time will tell what that means, whether McCarthy will become a ventriloquist dummy for TFG, or the Speaker who supports or allows his members to pursue a Joseph McCarthy style of McCarthyism en.wikipedia.org/... featuring a series of revenge investigations, multiple impeachments of political opponents and Q inspired witch hunts, but it seems likely that the new era of McCarthyism in a hyperpartisan and polarized Washington will contentious if not down right ugly.
McCarty will have his hands full trying to keep Marjory Taylor Greene and Jim Jordon from running amok. With Donald Trump barking in one ear and Ron DeSantis in the other, Kevin McCarthy is unlikely have the strength or vision to chart his party’s legislative agenda. One thing seems certain, McCarthy and the Republicans in the 118th Congress are unlikely to work across the aisle or make much of an effort to accomplish anything productive. Instead of tacking toward the center and adopting more moderate positions, they are poised to run off the rails in seeking revenge and retribution. Two years from now that should come back to hurt their chances to remain in power.
McCarthy has already promised to continue to stoke the fear issues that were the focus of the Republican campaign strategy by introducing immigration legislation as his first order of business, but how that could have a positive effect on inflation or gas prices or crime is unfathomable.
There will inevitably be House bills to outlaw abortion — but they will go nowhere in the Senate.
Yet more tax cuts for the wealthy will also be attempted. Watch for an effort to eliminate the already ridiculously generous Estate Tax — which on average is paid by the estates of just 2000 of the wealthiest families each year.
Any legislative efforts or commitments to slow climate change will be on hold.
McCarthy has suggested that as Speaker, US funding of Ukraine's struggle to halt and repel the unprovoked Russian invasion and occupation of their country will be in jeopardy. The refugee food and energy crises caused by Putin’s war can only be amplified by winter weather and grow worse if the war drags on because Ukraine lacks the arms and munitions they need. It is not yet clear how McCarthy will sell that attempted change in foreign policy. but it will probably be couched in some isolationist appeal to cost.
Then there is threat that Republicans under Kevin McCarthy's leadership will use the debt ceiling as leverage in an effort to try to make substantial cost cutting changes to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. That struggle may well get ugly.
Jim Jordan will chair the House Judiciary Committee and that puts a damper on President Biden’s ability to fill vacancies in the federal courts — which could prove problematic should a seat on the high court become vacant during the next two years.
The balance of the Senate remains unclear but it appears likely to come down to December runoff in Georgia. I will be dumbfounded if the spectacularly unqualified Herschel Walker prevails in that election, but if Walker is elected and Republicans as a result gain control the Senate, for the next 2 years Joe Biden will still have the power to veto any crazy legislation that reaches the Resolute Desk.
Elections have consequences. We need to buckle down, refocus, and get to work to achieve a better outcome in 2024. The new McCarthyism may only last for the next two years, but those two years could prove to be very very unpleasant. For years Republicans vilified Nancy Pelosi and among their followers turned her name into a pejorative. Kevin McCarthy will now have his moment — I doubt he will stand up with the grace and fortitude that characterized his predecessor.