UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 3:10:56 AM +00:00
·
Delta Overdue
Well, things tightened considerably today, and Marie’s lead is under 6,000 votes. With about 56,000 votes left to count, team MAGA would have to take over 55% of remaining votes to take the lead. Considering 45,000 of the votes are in Clark County, it’s really unlikely. I’m not as comfortable as yesterday, but still pretty confident Marie Gluesenkamp Perez will be my next Representative!
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is poised to become the first Democrat to represent Southwest Washington state since 2010! Her opponent is T*ump supported endorsed MAGA election denier Joe Kent, and as of last nights ballot drop Marie is leading by just under 11,000 votes with about two thirds of the expected votes cast.
At a local Democrats’ election watch party in Vancouver, Perez remained cautiously optimistic and called on supporters to fight for democracy in the face of extreme polarization.
“This campaign has always been about work and community. It is about creating a community where our sense of responsibility for each other is more than our sense of pride,” she said to the crowd in Hilton Vancouver Washington’s event space. “Regardless of the outcome, that kind of work is always meaningful and makes you a better person.”
As Perez presented her address, tears welled in her eyes, something she later told The Columbian stemmed from realizing how far her campaign has progressed, which Perez attributed to her campaign staff and “door-knockers with wet socks.”
“This is the little campaign that could,” Perez said. “We weren’t taken seriously. It’s only because of our community that I’m here today.”
(emphasis mine)
Her opponent acts just like his cult leader (if you don’t like reality, pretend it doesn’t exist):
The Columbian was not given access to Kent’s watch party at Cloverlane Mercantile and Event Center in Brush Prairie, and his campaign declined to provide a comment.
This is REALLY exciting for me, and before I got too carried away some analysis was in order. So, I went to the Secretary of State election results page and compiled this spreadsheet of individual county data:
I calculated how untallied votes would be distributed on a county by county basis using their estimate of remaining votes multiplied by the existing percentages. Since the District is dominated by Clark County, and it has some DEEP red pockets, this is not a done deal but I am cautiously optimistic. (Actually, I am VERY EXCITED by this prospect!)
Even though the dynamic in this race was a bit unique, Marie ran a campaign that shows Democrats can win in supposedly conservative areas. Lets take it to heart and do what we can to make this happen elsewhere!