One would think that a party that openly campaigns against immigration would not find favor with people who have immigrated legally or illegally. I know that legal immigrants are not in favor of people gaming the system that they legally followed. The fact is that those that come legally often are of higher incomes and can afford the legal representation to navigate the process. Many immigrants cannot afford that sort of representation.
But this all begs the question of why the Dems keep losing support amongst immigrants. And I am pretty sure I know the reason.
The Democrats rightly or wrongly keep focusing on social issues, or least the Republicans paint them as the party of social issues. We are the “woke party”. We are the party of LGBTQ. We are the party of defense attorneys who work put criminals back on the street. We are the party of reparations. Those of us of with means can shrug off a 50- cent increase in the price of milk or a dollar increase in the price of gas, so we do not know how inflation impacts the poor.
One thing that is true of many immigrants, is that they are very tied to their religion. And this is not only true of Catholic Hispanics. Many people from India are tied closely to their Hindu Faith. People might flee the religious oppression of Islamic regimes like Iran, but they still consider themselves devoutly religious.
One should also note that among Jews, the Orthodox are more likely to vote for a Republican rather than a Democrat.
Many of these devoutly religious groups are almost always patriarchal. The woman is there to take care of the family and may work to provide financial support. But they do not like women in leadership positions. Stacey Abrams did not get a large percentage of her votes from Hispanics. They would prefer a white male to any female and especially a black female.
I know this from direct observation having managed a largely Hispanic workforce. I promoted several qualified Hispanic women to management positions and invariably they wound up in tears because none of the men and most of the women refused to take direction from them. Several of them asked to be demoted because they were ostracized from their fellow employees.
Also, most of the “devoutly” religious are not in favor of LGBTQ friendly policies. They listen to the sermons of their religious leaders tell them that the gays are degenerates seeking to corrupt their children. The Dems support of reproductive rights runs counter to what they hear about the sanctity of life.
Democracy, to be successful, requires an informed, curious and independent electorate. People who are willing and able to understand complex policies and weigh the pros and cons of an issue.
Many if not most of the immigrants (I am not talking about people who come here to go to college) do not have this level of education so they rely on religious leaders to form their positions.
This is also largely true of the vast rural Republican parts of the country. They tend to be poor, less educated, misogynistic and more church going. They are going to believe people like Falwell and other evangelicals then scientists like Fauci or other non-religious leaders and policy makers.
As long as the Dems allow themselves to be characterized as Gay friendly people seeking to abort fetuses and destroy religion, we are going to continue to erode support. Much as we would love to see a society that is tolerant of all beliefs and sexual orientations that is not where the country is. Most of the people who are vociferously pro-choice are already with us. Pushing that issue is not going to bring more voters to our side.
Even those who do support abortion rights may not necessarily support politicians who advocate teaching about gay rights and same sex marriages in their kid's elementary school. So, while Kansas may have voted against criminalizing abortions, they still are voting overwhelming for Republican Candidates. While they have a Democratic Governor, both Senators and three of the four Representatives are Republican.
So how can we start winning back these voters?
We should not give up on the basic tenets of equality and free choice, but we cannot make that our primary focus.
How many of the seniors who vote largely Republican really know that the Republicans want to dismantle Social Security and Medicare? I have friends who say that they are not worried about that because it would be suicide for that to happen just like they were not worried about Roe V Wade being overturned for the same reason.
All Democrats political ads should stop addressing issues that are socially divisive and instead present the following questions.
Which Party do you think is more likely to protect your Social Security and Medicare?
Which party is going to raise the minimum wage, so you do not have to work several jobs just to afford the rent?
Which party do you trust more to ensure you have clean air to breathe and clean water to drink? (Do not frame it as relating to climate change which is used as a cudgel by the right).
Which party do you think will invest more in educating your children and hiring good teachers?
Which party will create a tax policy that benefits the lower and middle classes rather than the super-rich making over $1,000,000 per year?
Which party will do more to ensure that banks loan small businesses, like family farmers and store owners, with the same favorable terms that they do large corporations?
Which party will better protect consumers from scams and rip-offs?
Which party will ensure that healthcare remains affordable for all people and not just the rich?
Which party will ensure that the products you buy and the foods that you eat are safe?
Which party will do more to reduce the gun violence that plagues our schools?
None of these questions, with the possible exception of the last one, touch on social issues that may be antithetical to anything remotely connected to religion. They do not touch on policies towards Gays or Critical Race Theory or Reparations or any of those wedge issues that Republicans constantly wave in our faces. We do not need to abandon the social issues, but we need to not make them the focus of our campaigns. Those that believe in racial, sexual and religious equality are already on our side. We need to start getting votes from people who do not necessarily agree with us on social issues.
And please allow me to digress for a minute. I think a Biden candidacy in 2024 would be an unmitigated disaster for the Dems. Outside of the fact that he will be close to 82 at the next election, he is already a lightning rod on the right. His age and lack of energy are becoming more apparent. Personally, I feel he has done a good job, but he is neither inspiring or exciting and we do not need a party that keeps relying on the same people for generations. I also include Pelosi and Schumer in this analysis. The party needs to get younger.
I would like to think that a woman candidate can win but this country is so misogynistic that I fear we are still a way from making that happen. While countries like England, Germany, Pakistan, Israel and India can have female executives over the last 50 years, we are still seeking our first. When Herschel Walker, who threatened his wife with a gun to her head, and paid for several abortions, can get close to 50% of the vote in Georgia there is definitely a problem with misogyny (not to mention hypocrisy) in this country. When a guy can brag about grabbing a woman by the pussy and still get elected President over a woman with decades of experience you know we have a problem.
The person I think can turn the tables is Julian Castro. He is relatively young, somewhat charismatic and yes Hispanic. He is the one candidate I can see bringing back the Hispanic vote. Just as there was huge Black turnout for Obamas two terms, I feel that Castro could do that with the Hispanic Vote. And if we could go from 60% of that vote to 80% or more it will make a big difference especially in states like Texas, Arizona and Florida. How many Hispanics voted for Rubio based on his ethnic background as opposed to his policies? That is why he is hard to beat in Florida.
The only reason we won in 2020 was that the other side had Trump. I think almost any other candidate they had (maybe not Cruz) could have defeated Biden. We need to recapture the Hispanic vote and gain more with the Gen-X and Gen-Z vote. I feel Castro is the ideal candidate to do that. The one caveat is that if the GOP nominates Rubio then that advantage would be negated.