Lots of hoopla is already being made about Democrats having such a challenging slate of races they need to defend in 2024, 8 in total.
And it’s mostly right on point. That’s simply the natural consequence of a big wave year like 2018. Six years later, you could be screwed in the wrong climate.
We’re all exhausted from 2022 and it seems too early to speak about 2024 but I simply couldn’t help but notice, not a single word has been written on the internet about the best Democratic pickup opportunities.
Admittedly the pickings are exceedingly slim except for one long shot but realistic pickup opportunity: Indiana
After we’ve done everything we can to hold defense for the 8 dem seats on the line, the party must take a shot over the bow of this presumed Republican territory.
And Indiana has the perfect setup for a Cinderella story style upset.
- It’s a presidential election —> Democrat turnout gets boosted
- Indiana is currently the only Republican seat where the incumbent is retiring —> Further opening the field for a dumpster fire Mehmet Oz or Blake Masters style candidate AND eliminating the critical incumbency advantage Dems will be heavily reliant on to win themselves
- Pete Buttigieg is the man —> He’s built a solid low-key national profile a bit behind Harris maybe but on par with Warren, Abrams and O’Rourke and well ahead of Whitmer, Hikenlooper/Bennet and even Newsom
What moment is better suited in history for a rockstar Dem candidate to squeak a win in red territory? Don’t make me rehash AL ‘17 and MO ‘12 (if you know you know).
And the built in advantages don’t end there!
- Republicans are likely to assume this seat safe and just as likely to run an extreme candidate
- All Republican $$$ will be licking its chops at the offensive opportunities likely leaving the primary-battered Republican nominee tight on cash and outside resources
- Remember Obama won the state in 2008 (by one point) and Joe Donnelly won by 6 points in 2012 (both, probably not coincidentally, presidential years)
Whether he wins or loses he still wins as the race will only build his national profile further one way or another for when he does decide to go for president again someday.
And let’s not forget Pete’s magic superpower as a Conservative Whisperer.
His ability to consistently and calmly lay the smackdown on Fox News by framing popular Dem ideas within conservative logic is uncanny.
More than anything else, this is what Dems never do enough of to court curious Independents and Republicans.
When you already know your ideas are broadly popular, sometimes it’s simply a matter of framing to get your message to spread far beyond the core political party base and Pete is an expert. A rhetorical master approaching the level Obama and JFK while connecting with the working class base more than even Bernie Sanders. The military background certainly doesn’t hurt either.
He can artfully twist Republicans into hypocrisy pretzels with one hand tied behind his back and do it far better than any other leading top Dem who are all way more cozied up in their liberal bastion bubbles while remaining entirely and hopelessly befuddled by what makes conservative and independent voters tick.
This is Pete’s moment, this is just the opportunity he’s been waiting for to make that next leap up as a politician.
And the Dem party desperately needs an insurance policy against what we can already likely expect to be at least a one or two seat losing cycle without an exceptional nationwide performance.
Not only would a win by Pete in Indiana set him on a strong path for a more empowered presidential run down the road (imagine the Republican electoral calculus if home state advantage swings Indiana) but it could single handedly save control of the Senate and amazingly maybe even the presidency itself if we narrowly lose AZ, GA and WI but manage to barely carry IN on the back of Pete’s exceptional star power.
This is the career defining race that Pete was built for. Democrat pickup opportunities are few and far between in the land of Mike Pence and the Dem party needs to take its shot here.
Everything seems all but hopeless beyond this rare oasis of an opportunity*, but like AZ in 2018 and GA in 2020, Indiana could be next in line to serve up an unlikely Dem Senator.
Senator Pete.
It has a nice folksy ring to it.
So as crazy as it may sound, it just might take a gay man to reclaim and further electrify the inroads that led a black man to victory in this supposed deep red state that has exclusively only ever elected straight white men to the Senate.
Pete Buttigieg vs. the Pray-the-Gay-Away Industrial Complex
It’ll be one for the history books!
*Having given up hope on FL and TX for the next few cycles, especially while we have a Dem president, MO would probably be the next best slightly longer shot.
Here we have the beloved Haulin’ Hawley up for re-election who is uniquely vulnerable due to his fondness for white supremacy.
He may also throw his hat in the 2024 ring (one can only hope for that spectacle!), which would remove incumbency advantage in this race as well.
And further still, rumor even has it that his lightning quick performance on Jan 6th has earned him a walk-on tryout for the 2024 U.S. Olympic team in the 100m dash, however, there are concerns that without a mob of rabid Trump supporters on his heels, his performance may suffer.
Obama actually came within 0.1% of winning here in 2008 and McCaskill of course won in a blowout in 2012.
I looked into it and seems like Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas is Missouri’s best hope.