Charlie Sykes over at The Bulwark provides us with a holiday treat down the old memory lane of worthless predictions made by the Media and pundits. Specifically, the Media and pundits anointing the favorite or front runner for the presidential nominee of either political party. Using the same love of horse race analogy that the Media obsesses about, many of those “favorites” broke all four of their legs coming out of the starting gate. In fact, primary voters ended up putting the favorites out of their misery with a ballot to the head. And Sykes is looking at DeSantis as another nag in a long tradition of Media favorites.
And I agree with him. The road to the White House is littered with the bones of failed campaigns. Some of the remains are fossilizing.
But first, let’s look at President Fred Thompson:
President Fred
My favorite example is Fred Thompson, who was everyone’s favorite dark horse for five minutes in 2007. You forgot about that, didn’t you?
In March 2007, CNN reported: “Thompson's star rises with GOP.”
Roughly two weeks ago, Thompson said he was considering a run for president. Since then, he has skyrocketed out of nowhere to rank third among GOP White House hopefuls in a new USA Today/Gallup poll published Tuesday.
The poll shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 31 percent, Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, with 22 percent, and Thompson with 12 percent of the vote.
Politico was still bullish on Thompson in June.
If you were running for president, whose shoes would you rather be in today: Mitt Romney’s or Fred Thompson’s?…
Thompson, who hasn’t even formally declared his candidacy, is just putting together an organization and has yet to even set foot in Iowa or New Hampshire. But his acting and political careers have made him the hot candidate of the moment, as shown in recent national surveys where he is either tied with McCain for second or alone in that spot….
As late as September 2007, Thompson was still the new hotness.
McLean, VA - As Fred Thompson prepares to address the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference later today, recent polls show Fred Thompson tied or leading in three early primary states: Michigan, South Carolina and Florida.
Then he announced. And disappeared from American political history.
I have to keep reminding myself that Thompson did run for president. And then, nothing, despite the love from CNN and Politico. If I think of Thompson at all, it’s because he shows up on Law and Order reruns.
Then, there was Rick Perry of Texas. He ran twice for president, and he flamed out in both. I do remember him having that lovely moment on the debate stage where he couldn’t remember all the federal agencies he would eliminate. And he was called the front runner by the Media, until he came in fifth in IA.
Scott Walker was the greatest thing sinced slice cheese from WI, but after he announced his run in 2016, Walker began to fall apart. And I specifically remember all the love showered on Walker. For shits and giggles, here is something from Jim Geraghty of National Review fame (and he guests on the Washington Post as well).
But, before the end, Walker was repeatedly crowned the front-runner. Here’s Jim Geraghty in the National Review in late February:
No, Really, Scott Walker is the Frontrunner.
Quinnipiac polls likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants and finds Wisconsin governor Scott Walker leads the pack with 25 percent; 13 percent for U.S. senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, 11 percent each for physician Ben Carson and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, and 10 percent for former Florida governor Jeb Bush. No other candidate is above 5 percent, and 9 percent are undecided.
But this is what happened:
In July, he formally announced:
Some outlets ran stories such as “How Scott Walker Will Win” and “Six Reasons Why Scott Walker Will Be Elected President,” but the Times raised the possibility that Walker’s shift to the right on issues like same-sex marriage, immigration, and ethanol subsidies to maintain his lead in Iowa was making him appear inauthentic and costing him elsewhere in the nation.
By September:
CNN polls puts former frontrunner in bottom tier with less than 0.5%
“Walker’s collapse is especially stark,” said the network’s report on the survey. “Celebrated by conservatives – in the party’s base and its donor class alike – for his union-busting efforts in Wisconsin, Walker at one point led the field in the key early voting state of Iowa.”
Walker now enjoys just 1.8% of support among Republicans, according to a polling average by RealClearPolitics. A separate NBC survey on Sunday found his support had dropped from 7% to 3% since last month and that only 1% now believed he would ultimately be the Republican nominee.
Oh damn. The union buster busted out. Surely some of that anointing oil must have stayed on his bald spot? No. It didn’t.
And I remember President Giuliani! The guy who skipped NH because he was soon as too moderate. And he stacked it all on FL. And he flamed out, even if he was America’s Mayor!
And in case you think this only happens to Republicans, there are several Media Democratic favorites that went no where fast (Wesley Clark and Bill Bradley come to mind). And I am sure there are plenty others that I have blocked from my brain (most likely because some of them, like Bradley, were ones I was cheering on at the time).
But I agree with Sykes. I look at DeSantis, and I see the same slavish adulation from the Media and pundits. They all overlook DeSantis’s record, and they do not see that DeSantis is not a good campaigner. Oh, he murdered Charlie Crist, but did any in the Media notice that Democratic voters did not really turn out in FL in 2022? The Florida Democratic Party is in shambles. And you always look like a heavy weight champ when you are fighting a flabby, wheezing opponent.
I’m of the opinion that DeSantis will get slapped around by Trump. Get them on the same stage and watch what happens. Trump may be diminished, but he is still a nasty force to be reckoned with.
Anyway, I though you all might enjoy the Syke’s review!