Over the first week of its war with Russia, Ukraine’s military has demonstrated remarkable competence and bravery, in part due to the training it has received from NATO countries, including Canada. The expected Russian military juggernaut, meanwhile, has been massively underwhelming, suffering successive battlefield defeats and failing to the achieve the air superiority it was expected to quickly win.
But as the fighting moves into Kyiv, and other major cities like Kharkiv, the war is expected to shift gears. Urban warfare is the bane of any conventional army. No proven doctrine exists to tackle the complexities of fighting a war in the maze of city streets, where the local population is motivated to resist. And Ukrainians are deeply motivated—both by a president who has risen to the challenge of wartime leader and an international community that has rallied behind them in unprecedented ways.
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are lining up at recruitment centres to join the fight. Meanwhile, in Canada, the U.K., and elsewhere, leaders have suggested that citizens who wish to join the fight are welcome to do so, even encouraged.
This is looking like the start of an insurgency.
Maclean’s spoke to Dr. Eric Ouellet, a professor at the Royal Military College’s Department of Defense Studies in Toronto and an expert on insurgencies. Ouellet broke down what might be in store for the Russians and why, if Putin is at all rational, he should avoid it at all costs. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Q: Why do you think a Ukrainian insurgency will be so costly for the Russians?
A: Well, the best way to understand what the Russians face is to look at what makes an insurgency successful. There are three main ingredients.
One is legitimacy. The insurgent force has to be seen as legitimate by the population. That way they get all the logistics support they need—hiding weapons, hiding people, helping with transportation, money, recruits, etc. So that’s one aspect that makes Ukraine very strong from the get go.
The second characteristic is the insurgency’s actual capacity to inflict damage. In Ukraine, they have a very high level because of the military training they have received from countries like Canada, as well as the fighting in the Donbas region, where you have had independent Ukrainian battalions made up of volunteers. These people are still around, and they have real military experience.
The last characteristic of a successful insurgency is external support. Again, Ukraine is really starting at a very high level. The international community has shown that it is ready to back a long-term insurgency.All the pieces are in place. If the Russians try to go all the way–take Kyiv and Kharkiv and the rest of the country–and put a puppet government in place, that government will have zero legitimacy; it will face a very well-organized insurgency that has deep support.
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The Ukraine conflict in a timeline, a quick overview:
Orange Revolution
In 2004, the pro-Russian head of state Kuchma wants to make like-minded Viktor Yanukovych his successor. His pro-Western opponent, Viktor Yushchenko, was poisoned and taken to a hospital in Vienna. After weeks of protests, the election is repeated. Yushchenko wins.
U-turn
Disappointed by the corruption and political failure of the Yushchenko government, the Ukrainians decide in 2010 for Yanukovych. He’s approaching Russia again.
Maidan-Protest
When Yanukovych called off an agreement with the EU, protests broke out in November 2013. They are violently crushed. Yanukovych finally has to flee, and Petro Poroshenko becomes president in June 2014.
Crimean crisis
From February 2014 there were pro-Russian protests in Crimea, soon Russian soldiers disguised as “self-defense forces” intervened. A new government is installed and a vote is taken on joining Russia. After a controversial “yes” vote, Crimea became part of Russia in March 2014.
war in the east
From March 2014, violent protests by pro-Russian fighters erupted in the regions around the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These are increasingly supported and armed by Russian troops. In April, the pro-Russian fighters proclaimed the “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. A controversial referendum results in a “yes” to independence. Since then, fighting has been going on in the region with varying intensity, with around 13,000 dead so far.
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