The Ukranians have stood up to Russia valiantly. But even if the Ukraine fights Russia to a draw or is winning, the problem is Vladimir Putin is backed into a corner. He cannot end this war looking weak to the Russian people. So he’ll never stop. He’ll continue to makes threats of nuclear war to the West and continues to bomb civilians in the Ukraine. He’ll continue brutalizing the Ukraine with any means possible. (chemical weapons, lung-sucking bombs and dirty bombs). Because a Putin backed into a corner is the most dangerous Putin.
So how do we end the war in the Ukraine? By taking a page from the Cuban Missile Crisis, give Putin an off ramp to save some face (horrible as that is).
As much as we detest Putin (and God knows, he is the most detestable person on the planet) he will attack the Ukraine until there’s nothing left. He’ll also expand the war to get NATO involved. Time is a factor and we need a solution to end this.
First off, Crimea. Let’s face it, they’re never returning to the Ukraine. But we don’t want to reward Putin’s aggression either. So let’s agree to make Crimea its own independent country. Putin gets official recognition for peeling it away from the Ukraine. But it’s not Russia (although like Belarus, it will be sadly be under Russian influence). But if they stay independent there’s always a greater chance they’ll become a free nation in the future. Of course, Crimea agrees not to join NATO.
Secondly, the Ukraine agrees not to join NATO (possibly for a period of time). We weren’t going to have them join anyway. So like the obsolete Turkish missiles in the Missiles of October, let’s give it to Russia. Putin can crow that he stopped Western aggression in the Ukraine. And we can shrug it off that the Ukraine wasn’t ready to be a NATO country yet anyway.
Off the table: ANY suggestion that the Ukraine demilitarize. And, while not officially a NATO country, we will arm the Ukraine to the teeth. Another Iron Dome will look good there. As well as new planes and defense weapons from the West.
Finally, sanctions. Trade and oil can immediately resume. The closure of the pipeline and SWIFT sanctions remain until every last Russian soldier is out of the Ukraine and Russian missiles and planes are moved out of range of the country. We can also make troops out of Crimea and Belarus a condition.
Sadly, we can’t put war crimes and retribution payments a condition. Again, we need to give Putin a way out to save face (without giving up anything new). They’ll never agree to it and we need to save Ukranian innocents NOW. Also, punitive payments only made Germany create WWII. Don’t worry, Russia’s economy will be crippled for years by this war, even without financial retribution.
Yes, the Ukraine has held Russia off. And continue to do so. But Putin will level the country to the ground with missiles and commit other atrocities. He will never withdraw. This is a way to give him as little as possible, before there is nothing left of the Ukraine to fight for. Because sadly, he won’t stop.