In the last two midterm cycles, Democrats have excelled in the Keystone state, winning blowout victories far beyond what would be expected given the national environment. They might need to do it again to win Pennsylvania in 2022, because the state leans slightly towards the Republican party relative to the national vote based on its electoral history over the last six years.
This election would likely be out of play for Democrats were it not for Senator Toomey’s decision to retire. The Senate Election forecast I run at RacetotheWH would have given Democrats just a 23% chance if Toomey was in the running, down from the 54% chance they have today. Instead, Toomey left an open seat in one of the nation’s most competitive states.
A win in Pennsylvania could provide Democrats with the breathing room they badly need. They control exactly fifty Senate seats; losing even one seat will give the Republican party control of the Senate. If they can't flip Pennsylvania or any other seat, then they would need to defend all four of their most vulnerable incumbents. The more ambitious among the Democrat faithful will also be laser-focused on Pennsylvania as a golden opportunity to obtain a 51st seat, a prospect that has become more attractive after Joe Manchin sunk the Build Back Better bill in December.
Both primaries are contested. Republicans are led by TV Celebrity Doctor Mehmet Oz and Bridgewater CEO David McCormick. Both have their strengths for the GOP primary. Oz is a gifted communicator and political outsider. McCormick has ties to both the Bush and Trump wings of the party. He was the Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs under George W. Bush, and is married to Dina Powell, Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor.
In the Democratic primary, progressive Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is the frontrunner, and faces a fierce challenge from Representative Conor Lamb. In third is State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, a gifted communicator from Philadelphia who has, thus far, failed to break out in the polls.
Fetterman has taken a clear lead in the polling and has built an enormous war chest thanks to an impressive army of small-dollar donors. Nonetheless, because of a rising fear among some Democratic party establishment that Fetterman might underperform in the general election, the state party has begun to coalesce around Lamb. Fetterman backers argue that he is the type of untraditional candidate that could thrive, and his anti-establishment bona fide would position him to win back some of the white non-college-educated voters who left the party to vote for Trump.