This is not a book on the history and motivations of Putin’s Ukraine adventure. And, I make a lot of assumptions based on my personal understanding of the situation. I don’t have any of the answers. But, I do have a lot of questions and I don’t like what I see.
It is clear, even with limited and potentially distorted information, that the war in Ukraine is not going well for the Russians. Additionally, the World seems to be mostly united as an pro-Ukraine bloc; or, states at least hold a neutral position. Russia has no allies that are not pre-existing Puppet States. And, China, the last major power that at least tacitly approved of Russia’s position, has ceased operations of the Asian Infrastructure Bank and cancelled a gas purchase with a Company whose management is aligned with Putin.
All these external forces have led to a lot of speculation as to the long-term viability of the current Russian Government and particularly the “health” of Mr. Putin. Without delving into the psycho-political motivations of the people in charge of tamping down dissent, the, “cops in the Russian street” seem to be doing their job of enforcing the orders of Putin and those who work for him. We could be led to believe that Putin’s power, for now, is probably unshaken.
But, what if it isn’t?
There is considerable evidence that “things” are a bit shaky on the Home Front. The economy, and the ruble, are tanking. Trade partners are disappearing and the Ukrainians are on the offensive in the second month of what was supposed to be a “walk over” victory.
As I write this, analysts are indicating a shift in strategy for the Russian Military. They appear to be taking up defensive positions designed to hold the ground they have taken and, the shelling of anything in range continues. Perhaps this is a precursor to negotiations that will allow Russia to retain what they have gained to date. I don’t think that Ukraine is inclined to agree with this position. The war will grind on.
As delusional as Putin may be about his invincibility on the World Stage, I can assure you that he has no such delusions about what happens to Russian dictator’s who show a chink in their armor. And, the weekend provided a chink in the form of Biden’s remarks, in spite of the walk back, stating that a change in leadership has to happen.
At this point, if you are Putin, you are probably not paranoid if you think people want to kill you. And, Russia has nukes. In my humble opinion, the dangers that we are facing today make the Cuban Missile Crisis look like a walk in the park. Putin is getting backed into a smaller and smaller corner. Sooner or later he’s going to be at a point where he is not able to sustain his position. You can only arrest so many people without questions being asked about the state of the Russian nation. The economic forces in play due to the World-wide sanctions are going to become more and more obvious to the Russian people as goods and money become exhausted.
Putin has gambled and lost. Can he walk away from the table as a loser or does he go, “all in”. The burning question, besides how crazy is Putin, is will he, “push the button” if he sees no way out?
Let’s all hope I am wrong.