I, like many of you, want to know about everything going on in Ukraine and everything regarding what aid is being sent. However, even as important as I like to think of myself as, President Biden still isn’t taking my calls. But just because we haven’t handed over F-16s, M1 Abrams, and Patriot missile batteries doesn’t mean people aren’t working towards it. Kos has done an excellent job laying out just how much logistics and training of operators and techs goes into advanced weapons systems. IF President Biden was prepared to donate F-16s to Ukraine, would he tell us when pilots begin training on them or after they are fully trained and flying them into Ukraine? Why alert the Russians to what is coming if the announcement doesn’t serve some greater purpose. But let’s walk through this in more detail.
Prewar and in the early days (before March) no one new for sure how effective the Russians were going to be and how competent the Ukrainian defense was going to be. In hindsight, it seems obvious, but 20/20 and all that. In that time period, stabilizing the situation in Ukraines favor was the priority and the shipment of immediately usable weapons was of extreme importance. If Ukraine was potentially going to be overrun, sending unusable F-16s over would not help a Ukrainian insurgency. So we sent Saint Javelin instead to good effect.
Now Ukraine is in a position of copious people power and not enough infantry equipment to go around. They have people to spare and while the top end specialists need to stay in Ukraine, bright young recruits are available to be sent abroad for training on … stuff. Just training. On what doesn’t really matter. Hey, look at those new switchblades! Cool huh?
Looking to the future we have a few scenarios. There’s the scenario where Russian forces completely collapse and Ukraine just walks over them. We have many possibilities leading to different cease-fires and treaties in the near and mid-term. And we have the potential for a long drawn out war. In every one of these scenarios, it is in NATO’s interest to train Ukrainian military in advanced NATO equipment. In the event of Russian defeat with no conditions on Ukraine or cease fires where Ukraine is allowed to join NATO, then training Ukraine with modern NATO compliant equipment makes sense and should be done quickly. In those scenarios where Ukraine agrees to not join NATO but NATO is allowed to supply it, it makes sense to arm Ukraine with the full breadth of NATO arms to prevent the Russians from attacking again. Outside of a significant reversal of fortune, Ukraine is unlikely to sign any treaty which leaves it powerless to defend itself. Finally, in the case of long protracted war, it is still in NATO’s interest to arm Ukraine with the tools to defeat Russia.
But those tools take time to learn. I can’t really think of a good reason for NATO to announce that Ukrainians are being trained on those tools. I can’t really think of a good reason Ukraine would announce it either. The Ukrainian general populous knows it’s being supported to some extent. If morale were to plummet in Ukraine perhaps then they would make an announcement that more advanced equipment was on its way. Should a NATO country be in danger of internal political problems that could be solved by such an announcement, then perhaps they would announce then. Anything else gives Russia information on what is coming, so why would they do that?
We will know that Ukraine is getting tanks and planes and perhaps even submarines the moment it becomes important for the world to know they are getting it. Preferably once they have it in possession and are about to use it in a way which would make hiding it difficult. Until then, we are left hoping Biden will do the right thing, and so far he’s done a pretty good job. If you’re impatient, send him a letter. Oh, if you do would you please be sure to tell him to pick up the phone when I call?