There will be no nuclear Armageddon. There will be no Russian total victory. There will be no partial Russian victory. There will be no negotiated settlement. Ukraine will end this war in control of all of its territory including the Donbas and Crimea. The only questions are whether Russia will finally retreat or whether Ukraine will kick them out and how long it will take. I don’t say this out of hope. I don’t say this as Ukraine must do this because I say so. I say this because it is the only logical outcome. So let’s walk through this.
First let’s dispense with nuclear Armageddon. If Putin wants nuclear Armageddon we would have had it by now. There is no need for him to create casus belli to begin a nuclear war. He has enough control of the military and FSB that he could have put those people into place by now and launched. In a full nuclear exchange no one is around later to write the history and get upset that Russia didn’t have casus belli. There is no need to “draw NATO in” and provoke it to somehow launch first. He could just launch. He’s losing. He knows he’s losing as the generals can’t hide the Kyiv debacle. What is he waiting for to launch, unless he doesn’t truly want to launch? He’ll get as much out of threats as he can, but if he was going to launch he would have. (Now, our side could screw up and start something but Biden has played it well so far so I don’t see that as a significant possibility.). A Ukrainian win does not represent an existential threat that would trigger a Russian nuclear exchange unless Ukraine went crazy and attempted to take Moscow which they are not stupid enough to try.
Next, there will be no Russian total victory. Russia is in a far worse place militarily now than when they started the war and Ukraine is stronger. Russia has already had 3 major defeats. The first was when their shock and awe 24 hour victory grab failed miserably. The next major defeat was when their plan B 3 day decapitation attempt failed. The third major defeat was when they were forced to retreat out of all that territory in Northern Ukraine they had paid significantly for. Ukraine now has more tanks than Russia. Ukraine always had more troops in the country. Ukraine has sunk multiple ships and Russia does not have uncontested control of the seas. Ukraine now has superior artillery and essentially endless western equipment only truly limited by how quickly they can train on new stuff. Russia’s economy has taken a heavy blow and there is significant doubt they can replace much of their military hardware. Russian troops have been seen using WWII surplus. Where’s all the AK-47s? Where’s the 10,000 tanks? Even if Russia mobilizes, what are they going to equip the new troops with? Russia has shown no ability to learn from its mistakes and their military doctrine greatly limits their ability to defeat a competent opponent. There are zero paths for a full Russian victory.
There will be no partial Russian Victory either through stalemate or through negotiation. Russia continues to have lousy moral and leadership. Had they paused after retreating from Kyiv to regroup and dig in, perhaps they could have forced a stalemate. Instead they continued to attack until they have driven themselves into such a state of disorganization that they are incapable of doing much more. They attacked in mud season without pause. Wave after wave of reduced formations have been thrown at Ukrainian defenses in an attempt to wear down the Ukrainians. The Russians have managed a few recent gains but nothing of lasting military significance. In each place the Ukrainians were forced to fall back during the last month they simply moved to the next prepared line.
Ukraine knows they will never have a better shot at beating Russia once and for all. The Russian military is weaker now than Ukraine could ever hope for. Pausing hostilities so that Russia can regroup does Ukraine no good. The US will continue to give Ukraine anything it needs (that it can effectively use). In addition, Ukraine got a significant lesson during the last GOP US administration to know what might happen to them in 2025 if the GOP wins again and Russia has not been completely defeated. They know that any ground not retaken now is gone forever and leaving any ground for Russia now will only encourage it to try again later. Ukraine also knows that Russia is both out to completely annihilate Ukraine and that it can not be trusted with any agreement as it has broken at least two treaties with Ukraine so far.
So Ukraine will take back the Donbas and Crimea. It will not be easy and it will be costly. But the alternative is to give them up forever showing Russia that it can make gains against Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine must take this opportunity to make sure as many Russian soldiers and equipment never make it back to Russia ever again. It must totally destroy the Russian military currently in Ukraine so that it will take years for Russia to rebuild. Meanwhile Ukraine can join NATO and build up fortifications on its borders while continuing to modernize its military as long as the Democrats are in power in the US. In the event of a GOP administration, then hopefully Western Europe can continue to strengthen Ukraine without the US.
Russia can choose to give up at any time. I wish they would but Ukraine will most likely be forced to kick them out. Russia has such poor morale and supply that once Ukraine starts to make some big gains Russian forces will collapse quicker than people expect.
Ukraine will make its own choices on how to proceed. But the best thing they can do now is to win outright, because they will never have a better chance. I wish they didn’t have to pay the price they will have to pay, but any other course of action will be even more costly in the end and they know it.