We’ve finally got our first poll of the year for the Ohio Senate Election, from Suffolk University, and it shows a very close race. Republican JD Vance is ahead by just 2.2%, leading 41.6% to 39.4%.
Now, the Ohio Senate Forecast at RacetotheWH shows this as a highly competitive race and gives Tim Ryan a 28% chance of winning an upset. That’s a good sign for Democrats, who are now competitive in Republican-held Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio. If they can even flip one, it gives them a much better chance at holding the Senate, because they could then afford to lose one of the four vulnerable seats they hold. That’s why Democrats now have a 55% chance of keeping their majority.
One of the eye-popping stats from the poll was that Ryan has a much better image w/ Ohio voters right now. Ryan has a 39.8% favorable rating, and a 23% unfavorable rating. Vance has a 34.6% favorable rating, and a 38.2% unfavorable rating.
Even with this edge, Ryan is still down. This shows the effect of the political environment and the Republican's advantage in the state. To win, Ryan is going to need to maintain his strong image, while pulling Vance's numbers down. That’s no easy task.
Fortunately for Ryan, he's got a big 5-1 financial advantage over Vance right now. We can call this a David versus Goliath matchup, but David has the best slingshot money can buy, and he knows how to shoot. Republicans are the favorites, but Ryan has a fighting shot.
For predictions for Ohio, and every other Senate race, you can follow RacetotheWH. It was one of the most accurate forecasts for 2020. In 2022, it’s correctly called all sixteen primaries it projected.