Stochastic Terrorism is defined as:
the public demonization of a person or group resulting in the incitement of a violent act, which is statistically probable but whose specifics cannot be predicted.
The El Paso massacre is an example of Stochastic Terrorism. The killer’s manifesto echoed Trump’s violent anti-immigrant rhetoric. And yet, Trump’s incitement was not criminal because the specifics of the El Paso and other attacks could not be predicted.
Tonight, the January 6 Committee showed that Trump’s post-election actions went well beyond “Stochastic Terrorism” and into the realm of Federal Criminal Law.
KagroX, our own David Waldman, tweeted the definition of “Insurrection”* under the United State Code:
Unlike with El Paso, the “specifics of the violent acts” of the insurrection unquestionably “could be predicted.” Trump: “incit[ed], set on foot, assist[ed], or engag[ed] in a a rebellion or insurrection against the United States.”. He “set it on foot” immediately after the 2020 Election, but most specifically on December 19, 2020 with the “will be wild” Tweet:
Trump’s “defense” to incitement of insurrection is essentially that the attack on the Capitol could not have been predicted when he took all of his post-election actions, including his December 19 Tweet and his January 6 speech. But the Committee’s evidence shows it was predictable and intended all along.
Of course there are other crimes with which Trump may be charged, including Seditious Conspiracy, already made against the Proud Boys. But the most evident tonight was Insurrection.
*Updated to clarify that the crime is “Insurrection.” “Incitement” is one element of the crime.