— —
I talk to my Brother about once a month, via long-distance telephone. As per, his tangential interest in politics, he asked me for some advice on which Senate races could use the donations from himself and his wife. Thing is, he thinks I’m some sort of “political expert” because I often talk about the stories I’ve just posted here.
Well, Brother Bob sort of caught me flat-footed with that question. I racked my memory, and managed to mention WI, GA, NV, and NC. Although embarrassingly, I didn’t know who the Dem Candidate was in 3 of those Races. I did tell him not to worry about PA or AZ, since those look strong for the Dem.
So this post is to make up for my lack of having a solid grasp on the Senate races. My daily beat here, usually leads me into other “topic areas”. Just on the off-chance, that Brother might finally take an interest in my posts here … Or more likely, for some other regular readers here, who are in the same boat as Bob — and want to know how to best allocate your limited funds, in this very pivotal election season just around the corner.
—
I researched FiveThirtyEight.com. Here are some of their findings.
First off the Good News:
538_Senate_Dems_Slightly_Favored_to_Win — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
This is an interesting chart that sorts in the order of Toss-up, to less competitive. It has the percent chance of victory for the Blue vs Red candidate (using their statistical modeling for turn out etc.)
—
Here’s a break-down of 538 Senate races, Average of the Polls. (the coverage here seemed limited, likely due to the available polling data.)
538_Senate_Race_GA_Aug-19-2022 — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538_Senate_Race_NV_Aug-19-2022 — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538_Senate_Race_NC_Aug-18-2022 (Dem: Beasley) — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538_Senate_Race_AZ_Aug-18-2022 — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538_Senate_Race_PA_Aug-17-2022 — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538_Senate_Race_OH_Aug-17-2022 — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
—
Now for a few of those malleable races, that did NOT have an Average of Polls chart.
538_Senate_Race_WI_Aug-19-2022 — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538_Senate_Race_NH_Aug-19-2022 — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538_Senate_Race_FL_Aug-19-2022 — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
— —
And now for the Not-So-Good News:
538_House_Republicans_Favored_to_Win — projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Dems got our work cut out for us in the House. Hopefully those models still need to be updated to reflect the Roe v Wade issue, and the recent victories like the Inflation Reduction Act, etc. etc.
— —
Here’s the place to go to Donate to the Candidate that you would like to help:
Here’s one Senate bundle that looks interesting — secure.actblue.com
If you have your favorite bundle for donating to a group of candidates at once, please include them in the comments.
— —
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
PS. to Brother Bob, good to see you on line — finally! You know, where all the cool kids are.
PSS. …. You’re welcome.
— —
(Hopefully I’ll be able to do a similar break-down for House races soon. Although this post took a lot longer than I thought it would, when I started about 3 hours ago.)
— —