State governments are where a lot of bread and butter and freedom issues are settled and limited. We need to focus more on governors, attorneys general and state legislatures, but that is harder than rooting for presidential candidates or even 100 senators. Not many people even know who is governor of more than a handful of states, much less the other positions.
The Playing Field
Currently 22 states have Democratic governors and 28 have Republicans. Sixteen Democrats and 20 Republicans are up for re-election (or term-limited). So 6 Democrats and 8 Republicans don’t have to run this year.
One Democrat, Laura Kelly governs a red state, Kansas. Two “moderate” (perhaps sane?, believers in the rule of law?) Republicans govern blue states. Charlie Baker is not running for re-election in Mass. Larry Hogan is term-limited in Maryland. These states’ governorships are expected to be reclaimed by Democrats. Polls confirm this in MA, but MD has not been polled. Gov. Kelly is holding her own in a tossup in KS.
Governors don’t vote like members of Congress and legislators. They work with their staffs, their agencies and legislatures to make a state government work, or not in cases like former Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner, whose sole job seemed to be to stop the state from working. He did a fine job of that by not paying bills, passing a budget, or doing the other work of governing.
So we’re not concerned with a particular number to reach a majority when it comes to executive offices. If you are like me, you want to see individual freedom, good and smart government, and policies to combat climate change and guns spread to as many people as possible. Right now 22 states and about 170.5 million people live in states with Democratic governors. 157.2 M live under Republican governors in 28 states.
Method
This is my quick method of poll analysis. Not doing rigorous statistics to combine polls. Typically, polls have a 95% confidence margin of error in the 3 to 5 percentage point range. I find the average of poll margins and compare it against fixed thresholds based on 4%:
- < 2 percentage pt. margin = Tossup (much less than 95% confident either candidate is leading)
- 2 to 4-point margin is a Lean (270’s gray-blue or gray-pink)
- 4 pt. < margin <= 8 pt. is a Mild Lead (baby blue or pink) (more than 95% confident)
- 8 pt < margin <= 12 pt. is a Solid Lead (blue or red)
- Margin > 12 points is a Prohibitive Lead (dark blue or dark red)
I review the polls reported on 538, as they tend to be a superset of those on 270ToWin. For each race, I look back 1 to 2 months. Right now, I am collecting August and early September polls. If I have fewer than 3 unbiased polls from that time range, I go back to July. I do an average of unbiased polls, then I do a second set including biased polls that were taken during the same time frame. See discussion of biased polls below. I compare the averages to the thresholds above to find a category(ies). If the unbiased and combined polls differ in category, then I take the one that is less certain (closer to gray). However, if all the biased polls are from only one side, then I go back up to 2 months in time to get the other side, or I rate that average one category less favorable to the side of the bias.
Biased polls include those marked by 538 as funded by a party or candidate. I particularly find that Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen (haven’t seen any this year, I think they changed their name in 2020) and John Bolton Super Pack are actually quite biased in favor of Republicans. Usually the Democratic polls are neutral or even slightly pessimistic to Democrats. Emerson College polls are not marked as biased, but they often show 5 or 6 points bias in favor of Republicans. I am counting them as unbiased. Interestingly, Fox Lies polls are pretty unbiased, and they are counted as such.
When a pollster does multiple polls at once with different criteria (LV, RV, A, or with and without 3rd-party candidates), I throw out any All Adults polls, average the rest and count it as 1 poll. I prefer post-primary polls when there is a question about how many polls to consider.
State of the Polls
As of now, polls say Democrats should have 18-21 governorships, Republicans should have 24-25.
4 gubernatorial races are Tossups: KS, AZ, NV, and OR. Total population 20.7 M
KS Democrat Laura Kelly won against Tea Partier Kris Kobach, in a vote to repudiate the terrible mis-management of radical anti-government former Gov. Sam Brownback (IL Gov. Rauner seemed to use Brownback as a guidepost). She has done well for the deep red state and, particularly in light of the recent strong vote in Kansas against the anti-choice amendment, she just might be asked to continue by the voters. The only recent polls are from Republican-biased orgs John Brown and Kris Kobach, the guy Laura Kelly beat four years ago. They show her trailing by 3.5, which would be a Lean R, but translated because of the bias to Tossup.
AZ Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited. :D Trumpist mask-burner and former news anchor, Kari Lake, defeated the establishment candidate, Taylor Robson, who is married to one of AZ’s richest men and was self-funded. The other statewide Republican candidates, most notably the candidate for attorney general, are Trumpists itching to overthrow democracy in AZ in 2024. Sec of State Katie Hobbs will face Lake in November. Hobbs has maintained a lead of about 5 points throughout the summer, according to 538’s formula, but that has slipped to 0.8. My analysis of the polls shows Hobbs’ lead is down to 0.5 percentage points. Tossup
NV Gov. Steve Sisolak is running for his second term against Vegas Sheriff Joe Lombardo. By my method, Gov. Sisolak’s July lead of 5 points has dwindled to 1.5 points in August. The Nevada Governor Forecast shows Sisolak with a 60% chance of winning. That’s a slim margin. Tossup-ish.
OR This one’s a twisted tale. Dem. Gov. Kate Brown is term-limited. :( Democrat Speaker of the House Tina Kotek is not that popular, but neither is Republican House Minority Leader Christine Drazan. Thing is, there’s a second Democrat in the race, former State Senator Betsy Johnson running as an Independent, who has the most money thanks to backing by Nike co-founder Phil Knight. Johnson is described as more conservative than most Democrats. Polling is very unsatisfactory. Republican polls in Aug and Jun show their candidate leading the Democrat by 1 point with Johnson trailing by about 10. Johnson’s own poll shows her trailing D Kotek by 3 points and the Republican trailing by 10. Unknown more than Tossup.
Four other races are tight: NM, WI, ME, and FL. Total population 28.7 M
NM Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham drove the legislature to repeal New Mexico’s 1969 law which made abortion a felony except to save the woman’s life or in cases of rape or incest. It took her two tries. In 2019, when it was largely academic, the State Senate voted down the repeal 24-18, despite being led by Democrats. In 2021, the House voted 40-30 and the Senate 25-17 to repeal the 1969 law. Lujan Grisham opened up a bit of a lead in August. Unbiased polls show her at +5 points, but the all-polls shows just +3.5 points. Using the closer estimate, Lean D.
WI Gov. Tony Evers has fought the good fight against the pesky Trumpists in Wisconsin who didn’t want to wear masks, including the decidedly partisan Republican Supreme Court. He’s done a good job, but his mild manner makes him look a bit like Judge Lance Ito taking on Johnny Cochran when dealing with Republicans who always want to do the wrong thing. His Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has opened up a mild lead for the US Senate, but Gov. Evers has just opened up a 1-point lead in 538’s tracker over self-funded businessman Tim Michels. My method puts his Aug lead at 1.7 points. That said, Evers has not trailed in a single poll reported by 538, not even the most recent one by Trafalgar Group. Lean D
ME Obnoxious former Commandant, er Gov. LePage, self-dubbed “Trump before there was Trump” is back, after being term-limited 4 years ago. He did not win a majority in either of his victories, because multiple candidates got significant votes and Maine’s ranked-choice voting was barred in gubernatorial races by the State Supreme Court, saying it would be against the state constitution. Gov. Janet Mills led by 4.5 points in the latest polls, but they were back in May. That would be good enough for a Mild D Lead and there’s no sign of a third-party spoiler. But due to the latency of the polls, I’m going with Lean D.
FL Gov. DeathSantis is leading former Republican fixture, Charlie Crist, by 4 points. Crist is climbing in 538’s tracker, but will he get there? Lean R on the cusp of Mild Lead R
Who’s Keeping Score?
As it stands, polls are predicting
Democratic, including 3 leaners
21 states 173.2 M people
Tossup
4 states 20.7 M people
Republican, including 1 leaner
25 states 133.7 M people
How can I help?
Donate or volunteer at
democraticgovernors.org/… nextgenamerica.org/… front.moveon.org/…
Arizona: katiehobbs.org
Wisconsin: tonyevers.com
Nevada: stevesisolak.com
Kansas: www.laurakellyforkansas.com/…
Oregon: www.tinafororegon.com
New Mexico: newmexicansformichelle.com
Maine: mainersformills.com
Florida: charliecrist.com
Georgia: staceyabrams.com
Texas: betoorourke.com