Not gonna lie, this is the hardest diary in the series to write. Rep. Henry Cuellar is a lousy Democratic incumbent. He’s under investigation. He opposes abortion rights. He is pro-NRA. I *really* don’t want to write this article, but I promised to write about ANY competitive race. Cuellar is in trouble in November, which is why I head to the Rio Grande Valley and Texas’ 28th district!
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Henry Cuellar for Texas-28
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Candidate Background
Cuellar actually has a compelling background, and it does explain a lot about who he is as a person. He is sincere about his beliefs, regardless of how misguided they may be. He is quite educated as well, which wasn’t a surprise to me.
- He is the son of Mexican-American parents from Laredo who worked the farms as far away as Idaho in order to feed a growing family. As the eldest, Henry would likely have had to look after his siblings while his parents worked. His work ethic came from this experience.
- He graduated from Georgetown with a degree in foreign service, a degree from Texas International A&M in international trade, a Juris Doctor from the University of Texas and a PhD from the same university. As I said, he is a highly educated person.
- His family holds political positions in the town of Laredo, which makes the Cuellar family powerful in the area. His brother is the sheriff of Webb County, while his sister is a municipal judge in Laredo as well. Each one got it through winning elections, not nepotism.
Signature Issues
This was a difficult section to write. There is no issues page on his campaign website, and his Twitter account doesn’t often go into issues either. I know he is anti-abortion and pro-NRA, but his other positions are tough to nail down. I used his official House site to help me.
What wasn’t tough to nail down was the fact that Cuellar is one of the most moderate Democrats in the House. His DW Nominate Score is -0.229, which indicates a moderate voting record. He is more liberal than 53% of the entire House membership, while being more moderate than 92% of House Democratic members. He votes with Joe Biden’s agenda around 95% of the time.
Health Care: Cuellar is a reliable vote on protecting the ACA and Medicare and Medicaid. He has many underserved and health care desert communities in his district, and prioritizing funding to close these gaps is one of the causes listed on his official House website.
Education: As the son of migrants, Cuellar knows how difficult it can be for migrant children to remain in school reliably. He has championed programs to help migrant children get a decent education. He supports full funding for higher education and for K-12 education as well.
Infrastructure: As a part of a border district in which a heavy amount of trade flows from and into Mexico, Cuellar knows that better infrastructure is critical to the economic success of America. As a part of the Appropriations Committee, he brings home the bacon to the district and across America.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 52.8%, TFG (R-inc) 45.8%
2020 House: Henry Cuellar (D-inc) 58.3%, Sandra Whitten (R) 39.0%
2022 PVI: D+3
2022 Race Rating: Tossup
This district is part of the Rio Grande Valley, which has a very long history of supporting Democratic candidates for higher office. Granted, much of that time was when the Hispanic population was disenfranchised as part of the whites-only “Solid South”, but it is true that no Republican has ever won this district as currently constructed.
The secret to the success of the Democratic Party in the area is that they match the constituents well — no progressives allowed. The Rio Grande Valley as a whole is more conservative than the average member of the Democratic Party today. Rep. Henry Cuellar, as repugnant as his positions are, fits the mold of what candidates are expected here.
The only time this district chose to vote for a Republican at the presidential level was 2004 and the GW Bush re-election. Otherwise, it has consistently voted for Democratic candidates at safe margins. That is, until 2020. Biden severely underperformed in the district, which is why combined with some ethical issues (see below) create a Tossup seat where none should exist. Cuellar may be the only one who can win this district, and yet because it is Cuellar he could be the one to lose it.
Political Tour of the District
This district is quite schizoid in character, as the primary results show in the last two primary elections. The parts by San Antonio support progressives, while the parts in the Rio Grande Valley support conservative Democrats. Still other parts of the district endorse the GQP. It’s a mess!
Here’s where this race will be won in the 28th district.
- San Antonio: This is the CRITICAL area for Cuellar. These voters almost unanimously opposed him in the primary. Will they sit at home due to him being too conservative? If they do so, Cuellar will have to keep more of the voters below in his column. It’s a delicate dance.
- Rio Grande Valley: These voters almost overwhelmingly backed Cuellar in the primary, and they are his base. They will turn out for him, but will they be enough in a changing district? I worry that there aren’t enough to make up for disappointed progressives and new GQP voters.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Northern Part of the District: Once you get out of San Antonio, the district turns harshly against the Democratic Party. There aren’t many voters in this faction, but in a spat between conservative and progressive Democrats there are enough of them to tip the scales against Cuellar.
Activism — Help How You Can!
Rep. Henry Cuellar is completely drained from contesting that primary election with Jessica Cisneros. He raised an acceptable $571k, but most of that cash went to finance his primary. Meanwhile, his GQP opponent, Cassy Garcia, raised $405k, though she too had a contested primary election to tend with. It is good that he is still able to raise more, but the closeness of the gap signals alarm to me.
Cuellar only has $238k as of the (admittedly dated) end of June, while Garcia only has $222k to spend. This will be a contest over who can raise more cash in order to define the other opponent. Dark money will likely play a significant role here, as both candidates have major weaknesses to exploit and it is a cheap market. I cannot in good conscience give a donation to an anti-abortion Democratic candidate. Use the “Donate” link at the top or bottom of the diary to do so if you want.
Cuellar will need volunteers, especially for the San Antonio area part of his district. He will have to reach out to possibly disaffected progressive voters in order to win. That takes time and energy, and sometimes the right volunteer can change a person’s mind. The danger here is chronic non-voting for the Congressional line. This race may make the difference between Speaker Pelosi and Speaker Jim Jordan. https://www.henrycuellar.com/volunteer/ if you live in the RGV or San Antonio.
In terms of social media, I decided to follow Cuellar’s official account for this diary (and to take a hot shower afterward) because his campaign account is basically nonexistent. His official account does toot his own horn a little too much and has a little too much praising of the GQP, but it’s okay.
He also has accounts on Facebook at cuellarcampaign and Instagram at cuellarcampaign. I couldn’t access either one from my computer, but I bet they are just as rudimentary as his campaign Twitter account.
Look, I get it. I have been hard on Cuellar, who is simply representing his district. If it is between getting rid of him and losing the Speaker chair and retaining him and still having control of the House, I will swallow my pride and write about Henry Cuellar in spite of his record. And I will say this — the primary challenger, Jessica Cisneros, would likely lose this district. Cuellar may be the only Democrat who can still win it, but because it is Cuellar he might lose it as well…
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Henry Cuellar for Texas-28
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