An Oxford School of Geography study found that 90 % of the world's population will suffer from compounded extreme heat and drought. The presser mentions a curious term to describe the consequences of impacts on our species "widening social inequalities." I may be old-fashioned, but where I come from, we call that collapse.
The soaring sweltering temperatures will also undermine our biosphere's ability to draw down carbon emissions from the atmosphere.
The study uses the highest emission scenario and projects extreme heat and drought across the planet will increase tenfold. However, the same study found the same results in the low-emission scenario.
The grim combination of rainfall disruption and unbearable heat represents a more significant risk than the climate change-enhanced natural disasters occurring independently.
From the Oxford Presser:
In the wake of record temperatures in 2022, from London to Shanghai, continuing rising temperatures are projected around the world. When assessed together, the linked threats of heat and drought represent a significantly higher risk to society and ecosystems than when either threat is considered independently, according to the paper by Dr Jiabo Yin, a visiting researcher from Wuhan University and Oxford Professor Louise Slater.
These joint threats may have severe socio-economic and ecological impacts which could aggravate socio inequalities, as they are projected to have more severe impacts on poorer people and rural areas.
According to the research, ‘The frequency of extreme compounding hazards is projected to intensify tenfold globally due to the combined effects of warming and decreases in terrestrial water storage, under the highest emission scenario. Over 90% of the world population and GDP is projected to be exposed to increasing compounding risks in the future climate, even under the lowest emission scenario.’
Dr Yin says, ‘By using simulations from a large model…and a new machine-learning generated carbon budget dataset, we quantify the response of ecosystem productivity to heat and water stressors at the global scale.’
He maintains this shows the devastating impact of the compound threat on the natural world – and international economies. He says, limited water availability will hit the ability of ‘carbon sinks’ – natural biodiverse regions – to take in carbon emissions and emit oxygen.
"Limited water availability" will impact natural carbon sinks such as forests, grasslands, and the ocean's ability to absorb and sink the carbon. All three sinks are threatened today. Will they last for decades to come?
It is all happening too fast. The year 2100, 2050, and 2035 gives the license to kick the can down the road; that is delusional cruel and dangerous. I don't see how we get to the point where we can untangle the web of life in time, if it is even possible.
Bob Berwyn writes in Inside Climate News on the record-breaking temperature rise in the oceans:
The heat of global warming will keep penetrating deeper into the oceans for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions cease.
Ocean heat content reached a new record high for the fourth year in a row, scientists said Wednesday as they released their annual measurements of ocean heat accumulating down to a depth of more than a mile.
The findings published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Science show that just in the past year, the planet’s seas absorbed about 10 Zetta joules of heat—equivalent to 100 times the world’s total annual electricity production.
The scientists found that the warmth keeps working its way deeper into the ocean, as greenhouse gases have trapped so much heat that the oceans’ deeper waters will continue to warm for centuries after humans stop using fossil energy.
The speed of change. Dr. Will Steffen.