CUI BONO?
American officials say they have multiple strands of intelligence — including infrared satellite data — indicating that the deadly blast at a Gaza hospital on Tuesday was caused by an armed Palestinian group.
The intelligence includes satellite and other infrared data showing a launch of a rocket or missile from Palestinian fighter positions within Gaza. American intelligence agencies have also analyzed open-source video of the launch showing that it did not come from the direction of Israeli military positions,
— NYTimes, “Early Intelligence Suggests Palestinian Group Caused Hospital Blast, U.S. Says” By Julian E. Barnes, Adam Entous and Helene Cooper
Whether an Israeli bomb or Hamas rocket landed on Gaza’s Al Ahli hospital matters little to the casualties and their families. Wars inevitably kill innocents as well as combatants. The term “fog of war” is misleading. It refers to the uncertainties and unpredictability of events that occur under war conditions. The certainties of war are far more critical-— people die.
Since the hospital bombing, the Israelis and the Arab world have been issuing denials of involvement. The Israelis have been adamant in their denials that they do not target civilians in their attacks. Hamas, however, is on record of not only targeting innocent Jewish civilians but has done so with mindboggling barbarism that doesn’t need recounting here. In addition, the Palestinian terror group had collected hostages to use as further tools for their terrorism. So, amid the accusations trying to assess blame for the hospital, the question arises which side had the most to gain from the chaos and recriminations that followed the attack? Cui bono?
The answer should be simple, the Israeli government had little to gain and far more to lose in the battle for world opinion. The movement by the Biden Administration for a Saudi-Israel rapprochement that would begin with the Saudi regime recognizing for the first time the state of Israel would have far-reaching diplomatic and political repercussions. For Israel, a relationship with the Saudis would provide additional security and would help isolate Iran within the Arab world as the last roadblock to peace, finally, in the Middle East. For Netanyahu, the agreement would produce a much-needed political victory at a time when his coalition was facing fierce domestic opposition.
The Saudis, for their part, needed a way out of the Biden doghouse after the American president promised to make the Kingdom an international pariah after the state-sponsored murder of American journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In addition, the Saudis would get access to U.S. weapons to enhance their own security in the region. For Biden, an easing of Middle East tensions would give the president a diplomatic win on the stump next year:
Still, a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be one of the most dramatic events in a continued realignment of the Middle East, and could reap benefits for leaders of both countries, as well as President Biden, who faces re-election next year.
This is what was lost along with the lives of thousands of Israelis when Hamas unleashed its barbaric assault.
THE QUEST FOR MID-EAST PEACE
When Biden announced his decision to visit the region and meet not only with Israeli officials but also hold a mid-east “summit” with Arab leaders who had agreed to such a gathering to bring an end to what could evolve into a much wider clash and draw Jordan and Egypt into the fray, it appeared that Biden had headed off disaster. The bombing at Al Ahli put an end to that. It appears that the chances that the rocket that was fired that night and killed more innocents and civilians served the purposes of Iran and those who are not interested in a peaceful solution to the Palestinian cause and an end to the hostilities among Arabs and Jews. Cui bono? Who stands to gain? Go no further than Iran and their agents in the region, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Netanyahu would have no reason to put in jeopardy the Biden visit and the timing of the attack on the hospital seems more than curious. The explanation that this was, on the Israeli side, another example of what can occur in the fog of war seems now to be cover for an Iran-inspired action to Inflame the current situation and place the prospects of a solution in jeopardy. On the other hand, if this was an “accidental” misfiring of a rocket by the Iranian-backed Islamic Jihad, that, too, appears too coincidental given the facts on the ground.
Biden’s decision to visit the war zone only demonstrates the resolve of what Biden views as the mission of his presidency. His quixotic attempts to do right in a world that would rather pretend to fit his persona. His disagreements with Bibi over Netanyahu’s hard-right attacks on Israeli liberties and his assault on Israel’s judicial system were not allowed to color Biden’s solidarity with the Jewish state and its peoples. The same with his willingness to deal with MBS, the Saudi crown prince who ordered the killing of Khashoggi and who befriended the Trump administration which gave him cover for his crime. This is the job— his quest— and Joe Biden has shown that he is willing to “march into Hell For that Heavenly cause:
Several American officials described the current push by the Biden administration, and the chances for success, on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations. They said they believe a confluence of factors have created a window of time — perhaps before next year when the American election cycle intensifies — to pull together a possible accord. One of the factors is that a Democratic president might have a better chance than a Republican president of selling the deal to party members and bringing some in the political opposition along…
“Biden has decided to go for it, and everyone in the administration now understands that the president wants this,” said Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, who adds that a committed American president has long been essential for diplomatic breakthroughs between Israel and Arab nations. “When you’re talking about Middle East peace, it takes three to tango.”
— NYTimes, “Biden Administration Engages in Long-Shot Attempt for Saudi-Israel Deal”, by Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, Edward Wong and Vivian Nereim
SCRANTON JOE
Biden in his final years of service has been scarred and broken along the way, but his tenacity and his obsession to achieve his goals without compromising his principles will likely be the short version of his biography.
The incident at Al Ahli will hardly deter him. His foes on Capitol Hill are as formidable as most run-of-the-mill terrorist groups. As the president and his diplomatic team return to reassess their prospects, I may as well end this by quoting from a work that reminds me of Biden’s remarkable resolve in the face of great odds:
And I know if I'll only be true to this glorious quest
That my heart will lie peaceful and calm when I'm laid to my rest
And the world will be better for this
That one man, scorned and covered with scars
Still strove with his last ounce of courage
To reach the unreachable star
— The Impossible Dream (The Quest), Man from La Mancha
On the world stage, Biden’s role will not end until he encounters his final windmill.