Idiots in our horse race media and certain Democrats have been obsessing over Biden’s poor polling numbers vs. Trump. This has led a few to suggesting he should either withdraw and let a more popular politician take his place OR for an open primary where a more popular politician might emerge.
For the record I think this is a terrible idea. But I thought a quick rundown of the results of times sitting presidents withdrawing or being primaried might be helpful for people who might be inclined to this sort of thinking. These are very rough sketches, so please take them with a grain of salt. Here are the results of re-election campaigns going back to Truman:
1948- Harry Truman, unpopular incumbent. No significant primary challenge. Wins re-election.
1956- Dwight Eisenhower, popular incumbent. No significant primary challenge. Wins re-election.
1968- Lydon Johnson, unpopular incumbent. Declines to run due to poor polling (also a significant primary challenge by Robert Kennedy- thanks CookyMontza!). Republicans take White House.
1972- Richard Nixon, popular incumbent. No significant primary challenge. Wins re-election.
Gerald Ford, unpopular incumbent. Significant primary challenge by Ronald Reagan. Loses re-election, Democrats take the White House.
1980- Jimmy Carter, unpopular incumbent. Significant primary challenge by Ted Kennedy. Loses re-election, Republicans take the White House.
1984- Ronald Reagan, somewhat unpopular incumbent. No significant primary challenge. Wins re-election.
1992- George HW Bush, unpopular incumbent. Significant primary challenge by Patrick Buchanan AND strong third party bid by Ross Perot. Loses re-election, Democrats take the White House.
1996- Bill Clinton, somewhat unpopular incumbent. No significant primary challenge. Wins re-election.
2004- GWB, popular incumbent. No significant primary challenge. Wins re-election.
2012- Barack Obama, unpopular incumbent. No significant primary challenge. Wins re-election.
2020- Donald Trump, unpopular incumbent. No significant primary challenge. Loses re-election.
These are, again, rough sketches. I was unsure how to characterize the popularity of Reagan and Clinton at the time of their re-election campaigns. But a few things become clear:
- Incumbency is a powerful advantage. Of all the presidents who ran for re-election and didn’t face a primary challenge, only Donald Trump did not get re-elected. And the majority of people running for re-election aren’t popular.
- Getting a true primary challenge is deadly. No party that conducted a truly contested primary was able to keep the White House.
- It’s tough to say whether resigning is as deadly. It’s only happened once, and the reason that I think a primary challenge is bad (disunity at election time) wouldn’t apply. But I personally don’t want to find out.
I promised a short diary so I’ll stop here. If I missed anything please let me know.