In an interview on Wednesday, Fox News anchor Dana Perrino on America’s Newsroom asked Mike Pompeo, Trump’s last Secretary of State, about the prospective Israeli/Hamas ceasefire. She wanted to know his feelings about a deal that, on the plus side, would lead to the release of some of the hostages held by the terrorist group — but would also allow Hamas time to regroup.
“This is an excruciatingly difficult decision for the Israelis. Do you think that there’s a lot more perhaps that they know behind the scenes that gives them comfort that this is the right move at this time?”
In response, Pompeo reduced the conflict to a simple aim.
“I’m confident that the security folks in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu, understand the mission set, which is the complete annihilation of Hamas.
For shallow-thinking warmongers, conflict is easy. The goals are simple. You fight until you beat the other side. Reality is more complicated. You need a plan. How does Israel completely annihilate Hamas? I do not know. And I suspect that neither do the Israelis.
No two wars are the same. But, in this case, there are enough similarities with the Northern Irish “Troubles” that they should be an object lesson to Israel's political leadership and Mike Pompeo. UK politicians gave the British army a goal, the destruction of the IRA. In 30 years, the army never came close. And the British military had the support of much of Northern Ireland’s Protestant population.
Part of the problem was that, as the British military stepped up its punitive operations against the IRA, Northern Ireland's Catholics increasingly supported the terrorist organization. The Israelis run the same risk in Gaza.
Despite hyperbolic claims that every Gazan is at heart a Hamas fan, the anecdotal evidence suggests that many Palestinians are horrified by Hamas’s inhumanity. Populations are not monolithic. Not every American is a MAGA. However, should the Israelis continue to cause the death of many innocent Gazans, they may well inspire a "what do we have to lose" mindset among the locals.
This is not to say that Israelis should sit on their hands and do nothing about the c.1,200 deaths caused by the October 7th Hamas raid on Southern Israel. But they should consider what happened after the US invaded Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks. It became a 20-year boondoggle that left 2,420 Americans dead. And has already cost over $1 trillion, with another $1 trillion+ in legacy expenses.
For what?
Pompeo was first in his class at West Point. So at one point, he was very aware of the difficulties of asymmetric/urban fighting. He must also have studied the Vietnam War. It does not take an expert to see that was another conflict that did not meet its objective — and only ended after 58,000+ Americans were dead at a cost of $176 billion (easily over $1 trillion in 2023 money).
The point is not that Pompeo’s goal for Israel, the annihilation of Hamas, is wrong on its merits — it is that it is unachievable by force. Therefore Pompeo's fantasy is poor strategy. Israel may end up spending billions of their own and America’s money, but they will be pissing into the wind.
The goal has to be lasting peace. That will not come by feel-good, chest-thumping. Nor will it be achieved by burning the building down to kill the rats. Especially as the head rats may not even be in the building. The IRA’s leadership stayed out of British reach by living in the Republic of Ireland — and other sympathetic countries. Hamas’ leadership may well be in Tehran.
In addition, for every Hamas terrorist the Israelis kill in Gaza, it is reasonable to assume the collateral damage — and despite the optimistic talk of 'surgical' strikes, civilians are dying — will radicalize a young Gazan to take his place. And there is no shortage of them. The population skews young. At last count, 34% of the 2.2 million Gazans are males under the age of 30 — 748,000 of them. In addition, while women in traditional Muslim societies are not as likely to be fighters, they will increasingly encourage these young men to take up arms — and might even start to do so themselves.
I wish I had the solution to the war. I do not. But I do know that trying to win solely by “annihilating Hamas” is not the answer. Nor is blame casting. Some people nowhere near the conflict point fingers at the Palestinians for enabling terrorists. While others call the Israelis occupiers and say that the West Bank settlements are the cause. But while the debate rages over who is the bad guy, peace stays a fantasy. It is hard to move forward when you keep looking backward.
It was Nelson Mandela’s genius to understand that he could not achieve his goal of defeating apartheid without making some accommodation to white South Africans. Peace did not come to Northern Ireland at the end of a British gun or as a result of an IRA bomb. At some point, no matter how long it takes, peace comes when the sides negotiate. Unfortunately, God only knows how long it will take the parties in the Middle East to understand that.
In the interim, I think the end will be hastened by improving economic conditions and quality of life in Palestinian territories. That will be a hard pill for a nation that has suffered a brutal terrorist attack and ongoing threats to swallow. But until somebody breaks the endless cycle of tit-for-tat, there will be no cease to the killing and destruction.