State Sen. Tim Kennedy has become the first notable Democrat to launch a campaign to succeed Rep. Brian Higgins, who recently announced he would resign in early February from the solidly blue 26th District in the Buffalo area. The nomination, however, won't be decided in a primary but rather by party leaders.
Kennedy has represented Buffalo in the state Senate since first winning a seat in 2010, and his current legislative district contains 38% of the 26th District's residents. Other Democrats, however, are certain to express interest.
City & State's John Clelock writes that Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz is a likely candidate after he just won reelection 58-40 to a fourth term in a county that includes 80% of the 26th District's population. Poloncarz has yet to indicate whether he might run, though.
Several sources also mentioned Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown, a moderate who lost the 2021 Democratic primary to democratic socialist India Walton but won reelection to a fifth term as a write-in candidate that November. Brown didn't directly address his interest in the race on Friday but released a statement saying, "When the appropriate time comes, I look forward to a conversation about the future of this very diverse district." State Sen. Sean Ryan also refused to rule out running, saying he doesn't "know what the future holds."
The Buffalo News also mentioned Walton herself as a potential candidate here, along with Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes; Assemblyman Patrick Burke; former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, who lost close races for the old, solidly red 27th District in 2018 and 2020; and nonprofit executive Melodie Baker, who unsuccessfully sought the nomination for the 2020 special election that ultimately went to McMurray.
Under state law, parties rather than voters choose nominees in special elections. That means candidates like Kennedy must tailor their pitch to a small group of power brokers in Erie and Niagara counties, the two counties that make up the district. Since Erie's portion of the 26th is four times as large as Niagara's, though, the choice may come down solely to Erie County Democratic chair Jeremy Zellner. Zellner told Spectrum News that "large town committees" and the Niagara party will "also have a say," though he didn't specify how the decision-making process would work.